Top NHL Betting Picks For Wednesday, March 23rd (2022)

On Monday, Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis said there should be no games on trade deadline day, and while it's an interesting idea, I agree with it.

Why force teams to ice skeleton lineups as they wait for their new players to join the club? And why not build the anticipation one more night? Instead, we've got another miniature Wednesday slate on tap tonight, but there are two bets I really like.

I've got a moneyline and a total on tap, so let's start out west.

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Chicago Blackhawks vs. Anaheim Ducks

In a battle of two of the bigger sellers at the deadline, there's some value to be had on the home team. Despite losing Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, Nicolas Deslauriers, and Ricard Rakell to trades, the Ducks still have plenty of talent on their roster – and most importantly for our bet, they're going to see increased ice time.

The Ducks leaders in terms of CF% this year are, in order – Sonny Milano, Trevor Zegras, Adam Henrique, and Troy Terry. If you flip Zegras and Henrique, those are the top four Ducks in terms of xGF% as well. However in terms of ice time, none of the four crack the top five – but now they will thanks to all the departures at the trade deadline. And that's great for our bet, considering the best performing Ducks will not only be on the ice more often but will be facing a Blackhawks team that was essentially held together by their recently-departed goaltender.

Marc-Andre Fleury, while not having his best season, was still one of the only strengths of the Chicago Blackhawks. His .908 save percentage and 2.95 goals against average are both below his career averages but behind a blue line with as many holes as Chicago's those are respectable numbers. With Fleury now in Minnesota, the Blackhawks will turn to Kevin Lankinen in net, and Lankinen has struggled mightily this season. He's allowed the same number of goals above expectation this year as Fleury in 28 fewer starts, and his .889 save percentage ranks right near the bottom of the league.

There's really no sense in analyzing how these teams have been playing of late because both teams are vastly different today than they were just 48 hours ago. But the Ducks will benefit from addition by subtraction while the Blackhawks, as admitted by their general manager Kyle Davidson, are fully expecting regression – starting now. Take Anaheim with confidence and play them down to -135.

Pick: Anaheim Ducks ML (-120; PointsBet)

New Jersey Devils vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

We're getting a ton of value here, considering DraftKings has already moved this line down to -115. These are two teams who know how to put the puck in the net and have trouble keeping it out of their own.

Let's start with the Devils. New Jersey is the 29th ranked team in terms of points percentage in the NHL, but that's not due to lack of offense. In fact, their offense in terms of expected goals is ranked fifth over the last month and change and is ranked fourth in overall scoring since February 1st. They've poured in seven goals in six different games this season, including last night when they chased MVP-frontrunner Igor Shesterkin after two periods. They've hung seven on Carolina, St. Louis, and Florida as well, so last night wasn't a fluke. This team is loaded with offensive talent and they know how to put the puck in the net.

The problem with the Devils has been their goaltending, and what worse team to trot a poor goaltender out against than Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs? Jon Gillies will probably start tonight since Nico Daws got the net last night against the Rangers. Gillies is not very good – in fact, he's allowed the fourth-most goals above expectation in the NHL despite playing in four fewer games than any of the goaltenders behind him. He's given up 31 goals in his last seven starts and another three goals in two periods of relief in that span, and Gillies has allowed four or more goals four times over those seven starts.

If the Devils opt for Nico Daws on back-to-back nights, that also works for us. Daws has been better than Gillies, but it's been a struggle lately. He's just 21 years old and has barely a full season of AHL work under his belt, let alone NHL work. Daws was chased from each of his last two starts before last night, and despite getting the win against the Rangers on Tuesday, Daws still allowed four goals and 1.5 goals above expectation. Look for Toronto to absolutely feast.

And of course, we know the Leafs can not only score but have goaltending problems of their own. Expect Erik Callgren for the fourth straight game, and while he was solid for the first two games of this mini-streak, the wheels came off against Nashville as he allowed six in a 6-3 loss. It marked the eighth time in the last 12 games that the Maple Leafs allowed at least four goals, so look for a heavy dose of Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier in front of Callgren tonight.

This is my favorite total on the board, and there's still value left at some sportsbooks. Play this down to DraftKings' price of -115.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-115; DraftKings)

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.