Navigate

Top NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday, March 31 (2021)

by |

On Monday, the Winnipeg Jets beat the proverbial wheels off the Calgary Flames by a score of 5-1. If you think that there’s anything better than a best bet hitting with ease, let me know, so I can tell you that you’re wrong.

Despite a six-game slate, we only have two games of relevance tonight. The first is a battle for first place in the North Division. The second is relevant for all the wrong reasons, as we wait to see if the Buffalo Sabres will set the NHL record for most consecutive losses in league history.  And no, we’re not touching that.

And be sure to follow me on Twitter as I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full writeup.

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>

Toronto Maple Leafs (-137) vs. Winnipeg Jets (+118)

Toronto travels to Winnipeg hoping to separate themselves from the Jets team in the North Division standings. They have split the season series thus far, with each team winning two games.

Both teams are tied for fifth in GF/GP with a 3.31 mark. The NHL’s leading goal scorer, Leafs center Auston Matthews, enters the game with 23 tallies. The Jets’ Kyle Connor isn’t far behind, with 17 goals of his own. Both teams are clearly a force offensively, but they leave much to be desired on the defensive end.

Winnipeg holds a clear advantage in the net with Connor Hellebuyck. After a slow start, he enters the game with a stellar 9.0 GSAA and 2.57 GAA. That puts him squarely back in the Vezina Trophy conversation. With starter Freddie Anderson on the shelf, Toronto will counter with Jack Campbell, who has performed well in the interim with a 6-0 record and 6.1 GSAA.

Below, we’ll analyze each teams’ metrics 5v5 this season:

Number’s courtesy of Evolving-Hockey

  • CF%: 51.92 (TOR) 47.55 (WPG)
  • xGF%: 54.92 (TOR) 46.66 (WPG)
  • xGF/60: 2.59 (TOR) 2.25 (WPG)
  • xGA/60: 2.12 (TOR) 2.57 (WPG)

To dig deeper, I went back and analyzed the numbers from the past 30 days and found huge discrepancies in:

  • xGF%: 57.59 (TOR) 49.47 (WPG)
  • xGA/60: 1.91 (TOR) 2.4 (WPG)

As discussed in Monday’s best bets article, the Jets perennially outperform their underlying numbers due to their gifted forwards and goaltender. Though that is sustainable against weaker teams, I can’t ignore these metrics against a team like the Leafs.

Coming off a loss and looking to hold onto first place, I’ll back The Buds in this one.

Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs (-137) or better

Mitch Marner to score (+180)— 3G, 3A in 4GP against WPG this season

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.