Top NHL Betting Picks For Wednesday, March 9th (2022)
We’ve got a quiet night on the ice ahead of us. Just two games make up the entirety of tonight’s NHL slate after 11 on Tuesday night, and just because there aren’t many games or many high-profile teams in action, it doesn’t mean we can’t find a best bet.
It’s tough to find winners when there are so few games because the lines tend to be sharper, so I’ve only got one bet on the docket tonight—the biggest underdog on the board. A team that has been playing extremely well under their new coach.
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Montreal Canadiens ML (+185; UniBet)
We’ve bet on the Canadiens twice since the coaching change from Dominique Ducharme to Martin St. Louis, and we’ve cashed both—so why not make it three in a row under the new bench boss?
As I’ve harped on in previous pieces, the St. Louis-led Habs are a totally different team than the Ducharme-led Habs were. They’re playing a tougher, quicker, and more inspired brand of hockey, but it’s not just the eye test that shows their improvement. The metrics show it as well. Fade them at your own risk, if you’re just going to look at their overall record on the season.
Under Ducharme, Montreal was dead-last in the NHL in points percentage (.269), sported a miserable 46.80% CF% (27th), a 44.61% xGF% (31st), and a 45.77% HDCF% (25th). It was ugly, and they had the worst record and fewest points in the NHL to show for it.
But under the former star forward-turned-head coach Martin St. Louis, the Canadiens have ascended to the middle of the pack in terms of the very same metrics. Montreal’s .636 points percentage is 12th in the league, their 49.73% CF% while still a touch below average is ranked 15th, their 51.76% xGF% is 14th, and their HDCF% of 50.50% is 20th.
But for some reason, the Habs are still being priced in the market like the 23-point team from earlier in the year. I’m not sure why, but we’ll surely take advantage. Montreal has tons of momentum, winning seven of eight, and they’re beating some good teams in the process. They’ve defeated the Blues, Maple Leafs, Flames, and Oilers in that span, and they’re incredibly well-rested having not taken the ice since Saturday evening.
Vancouver is hot themselves, having won five of six, but +185 is way too much value on an equally-hot Canadiens team. Play them down to +170.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.