Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/24)

by Matt Barbato |
Nov 24, 2023

Black Friday is a busy night across the NHL. Actually, that’s an understatement. There are 15 games to enjoy as you recover from your Thanksgiving feast. So as the tryptophan wears off, saddle in for a monstrous slate.

With so many games on the schedule, this week’s article will only focus on the games I’m playing. Here are my top bets for the NHL Black Friday slate.

2023 record: 4-1

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Friday’s Best NHL Bets

Toronto Maple Leafs (-250) at Chicago Blackhawks (+205), O/U 6.5

We begin our Black Friday bets with a pick that might have you throwing up your Thanksgiving meal. I apologize in advance.

I’m taking the Chicago Blackhawks, losers of five straight, against the Toronto Maple Leafs. And there are a few reasons why.

First off, there isn’t an enormous disparity between these teams when you look at the advanced metrics. Are the Maple Leafs better and more talented? Absolutely. But the Leafs only hold a marginal advantage when it comes to expected goals at 5-on-5. Toronto has an xGF% of 46.9%, while Chicago’s xGF% is 42.22%. The Maple Leafs also only hold slight advantages when it comes to possession and shot attempts.

Chicago also could have the edge between the pipes, as Arvid Soderbloom will square off with Ilya Samsonov. Samsonov has been one of the league’s worst goaltenders, with -3 goals saved above expected, while Soderbloom has posted 0.9 GSAE.

I also really like the spot for the Blackhawks. Chicago was embarrassed on Wednesday, 7-3, by Columbus. But that was a massively important game for a reeling Blue Jackets team that had lost nine straight prior to that game. I expected Columbus to give a max effort, and they did.

Now, Chicago faces a similar situation. The Hawks are looking to snap an ugly losing streak and will get a Maple Leafs team that tends to play down to its competition. Toronto already lost to these Hawks earlier in the season, and have rough losses to Nashville and Buffalo on their resume.

The Leafs also could come out a bit flat after returning home from Sweden earlier in the week. If you’d rather take the Blackhawks on the puck line, I’m fine with that. But if you’re searching for a bigger payday, I’ll take a shot on the Hawks straight up.

The pick: Blackhawks +205

Nashville Predators (-105) at St. Louis Blues (-115), O/U 6

The Predators and Blues both enter this game riding multi-game winning streaks. But it’s the visiting Predators that are showing better form at 5-on-5.

Nashville’s goals for percentage at 5-on-5 is only 48.84%, but their expected goals for percentage is 52.5%. On the flip side, St. Louis has a goals for percentage of 55.3%, but an expected goals for percentage of 46.33%. The Preds are also doing a much better job of restricting scoring chances, while still finding ways to create chances of their own.

The big question is between the pipes. We’ll see Jordan Binnington in net for St. Louis, and the veteran ranks eighth in goals saved above expected. For Nashville, Juuse Saros has the pedigree, but started Wednesday night and ranks second-t0-last in the league in GSAE. Backup Kevin Lankinen has been steadier in limited action. But I tend to believe Binnington’s incredible play is bound to cool off.

I also like this spot for Nashville, as St. Louis is returning home after a lengthy West Coast road trip, a spot that’s historically been tough for home teams. I’ll take the Preds as short road dogs.

The pick: Nashville -105

Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Washington Capitals (+110), O/U 6.5

This game screams regression. The Capitals are getting better results than their play is warranting, while the Oilers have an expected goals percentage of nearly 55%, but have an actual goals for percentage of 38.1%. A shooting percentage of 6% is definitely a reason for Edmonton’s struggles, but the biggest problem with the Oilers is goaltending. Stuart Skinner ranks dead-last in goals saved above expected and was lit up again Wednesday night in Carolina.

The assumption is we’ll see Calvin Pickard in net for Edmonton, with Charlie Lindgren between the pipes for Washington after Darcy Kuemper started Wednesday night.

While the Caps have the clear advantage in the net, I can’t ignore what the metrics are saying here. I also like the spot for the Oilers, who have lost three straight. Meanwhile, Washington has won five in a row, but were lucky to beat Buffalo Wednesday. The Caps tied the game with 1:15 remaining, then won in overtime with a goal scored with four seconds left.

Backing Edmonton is terrifying, but this feels like the spot where Washington’s win streak comes to an end.

The pick: Edmonton -130

Winnipeg Jets (+114) at Florida Panthers (-135), O/U 6.5

The Winnipeg Jets are red-hot and winners of four straight, but I like the Panthers as a home favorite in this situation.

Florida’s process and results are closely similar. The Panthers have a goals for percentage of 53.85%, and an expected goals for percentage of 53.95%. On the flipside, Winnipeg could be due for some serious regression, as the Jets have a goals for percentage above 61% with an expected goals for percentage of just 49.85%.

Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is starting to heat up, but we could see backup Laurent Brossoit here after Hellebuyck started Wednesday night. Regardless, Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky makes this a relatively neutral goaltending matchup.

Both of these teams are playing really well, but Florida has been better in controlling games and creating chances. After losing to Boston on home ice Wednesday, back the Panthers to bounce back.

The pick: Panthers -135

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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