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Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/15)

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Friday’s NHL slate features just two games, each involving one playoff contender and a team looking forward to the NHL Draft Lottery.

Let’s get straight into Friday’s slate and our best bets on the ice.

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-2024 record: 21-12

Anaheim Ducks (+330) @ Winnipeg Jets (-425), O/U: 5.5 (-120/+100)

Oddsmakers clearly view the Jets as the superior team here, which they obviously are. The Jets are in the thick of the Central Division race, while the Ducks are playing out the string of another dismal season.

But does Winnipeg really deserve to be priced like this over anyone? Not in their current form. The Jets actually rank 25th in the league in expected goals-for percentage at 5-on-5 play over their last 10 games. The Ducks are far worse, ranking 30th in the same category.

The larger point is that while I have no interest in backing the Ducks, these two teams are actually not all that far apart in terms of recent form. In a vacuum, Winnipeg definitely wins this game the vast majority of the time, but I’m not paying more than $4 to see it happen.

The pick: Pass

Los Angeles Kings (-275) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+220), O/U: 5.5 (-122/+102)

Here is another game featuring an enormous disparity in the odds between two teams that aren’t as far apart recently as we think.

The Kings rank 12th in xGF% at 5-on-5 over their last 10, while Chicago is right behind them at 14th. The Blackhawks are actually due for some serious positive regression, as their actual goals-for percentage sits at 32%. This is primarily because their shooting percentage of 5.53% ranks second-worst in the league. Chicago experienced some of that positive regression their last time out against the aforementioned Ducks, lighting them up for seven goals.

Chicago has gotten healthier and opened up its play lately. Oh, and Connor Bedard has found his stride, putting up 11 points in six games this month already.

Unfortunately, we will see Arvid Soderblom between the pipes for Chicago. Soderblom ranks 92nd among 93 goaltenders in goals saved above expected this season. Whether it’s Cam Talbot or David Rittich for L.A., the Kings should have the edge in-net.

However, the spot favors the Blackhawks here, as the Kings will travel to Dallas for a pivotal matchup on Saturday and could be looking ahead a bit. L.A. is a huge favorite for a reason, but recent form would indicate the Hawks have more of a chance than you’d think. With a little bit of puck luck, the Hawks could surprise here. I’ll play it safe and take the Hawks on the puck line, but I also don’t mind a frisky Friday play on the moneyline.

The pick: Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 (-120)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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