Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/22)
While March Madness is capturing the attention of most of the betting public, there’s still hockey to bet on as well! And we’ve got a four-pack of games to kick off the weekend.
Here’s a breakdown of each of our four games, as well as betting deliverables for each.
Friday's Best NHL Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-2024 record: 21-13
Carolina Hurricanes (-205) at Washington Capitals (+170) | O/U 6
Don’t look now, but the Capitals are sneaking into the insane Eastern Conference wild card race. The Caps are just three points behind the Detroit Red Wings with two games in hand for the final playoff spot.
While the Capitals are in the playoff fight, they’re still playing below-average hockey, ranking 18th in expected goals for (GF) percentage at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. And given their roster depth, they feel like a good pick to fall out of the race as the regular season winds down.
The Caps will also have their hands full with a Carolina Hurricanes team that’s rounding into form after making significant moves at the trade deadline. The Canes have won five straight games and are dominating at 5-on-5, posting the league’s second-best expected goals percentage. Carolina’s also gotten stable, dare I say solid, goaltending as of late, posting a 92.23 save percentage during that stretch.
The Hurricanes are clearly the better team. However, I don’t trust them laying such heavy numbers like this. I prefer to back the Canes as short favorites or underdogs because their occasional inability to convert on their surplus of scoring chances makes them difficult to back as a big favorite.
The pick: Pass
Pittsburgh Penguins (+164) at Dallas Stars (-198) | O/U 6.5
While Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals are exceeding expectations and sticking around in the playoff race, Sidney Crosby’s Pittsburgh Penguins have fallen off since the trade deadline. The Penguins have gone 3-6-1 in their last 10 games, but they could be due for some better results. The Penguins have posted an actual GF percentage of 36.54%, with an expected GF percentage of 49.44% at 5-on-5 during that stretch. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in shooting percentage and 31st in save percentage during that stretch, too, which could regress in their favor.
Like Carolina, the Stars are a wagon after making significant deadline additions. Dallas ranks third in expected goals for percentage over its last 10 games. However, there’s a glaring flaw that makes it practically impossible to back them as such big favorites: goaltending.
Dallas’ goaltending tandem is a disaster right now. Jake Oettinger and Scott Wedgewood rank 83rd and 81st, respectively, in goals saved above expected. In other words, the Stars are playing great, but their goaltending is completely letting them down.
Pittsburgh could just be a corpse that’s thrown in the towel. But even a corpse can score on these goalies. It’s a stay away from me, but if you feel the need to bet, I’d take Dallas and Carolina in a parlay.
The pick: Pass
Columbus Blue Jackets (+295) at Colorado Avalanche (-375) | O/U 6.5
Another game featuring a playoff contender against a team playing out the string. The Avalanche have posted a GF percentage of 67.4% over their last 10 games, with an xGF% of just 54.58%. That suggests Colorado could be due for some regression in the near future. But I’m not taking that shot at home against Columbus.
The pick: Pass
Seattle Kraken (-108) at Arizona Coyotes (-112) | O/U 5.5
This is the most meaningless game of the night and it features two teams that rank near the bottom of the league in expected goals for percentage. The Yotes are due for some major regression from their 58.82 goals for percentage (their xGF% is just 46.12%), but Seattle seems to be checked out and is playing the second leg of a back-to-back after losing 3-1 to Vegas last night. The Kraken have also lost six straight. And at this point of the season, I have no interest in getting involved with either of these trash teams.
The pick: Pass
Final Thoughts
Since I passed on all four of the games on this awful slate, I wanted to at least leave you with one actionable betting item. A parlay on the Hurricanes, Stars, and Avalanche pays out +180 for those looking to get some action. While I get nervous backing three favorites, I do think it’s worth a flyer in three games between haves and have-nots.
For more information about hockey betting, check out our informative articles below.
- The Top 5 Bet Types for Beginner NHL Bettors
- How To Bet NHL Player Props: A Beginner’s Guide
- What is the Puck Line?
- Puck Line Betting Strategy
- Advanced Stats to Improve Your Odds
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: