Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/29)
Tickets to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs could be punched tonight, as the Maple Leafs (3-1) and the Hurricanes (3-1) each look to close out their respective series. Meanwhile, the Wild vs. Golden Knights (2-2) and Oilers vs. Kings (2-2) series churn ahead, and will each need at least two more games for the winners to advance.
Below, I'll dive into all four games from a sports betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the ice. Here are my top NHL bets tonight.
Tuesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Ottawa Senators (+140) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) | O/U 5.5 (-118/-102)
The Leafs (3-1) are on the cusp of advancing to the second round, and they'll look to close out the series tonight at home against an in-province rival in the Senators (1-3). The fifth game of the Battle of Ontario is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.
I'll go ahead and play the Under of 5.5 goals at a pretty reasonable price of -102. Half of the games in this series have finished below this total, and things should really tighten up in Game 5, being that it's an elimination contest. In terms of expected goals per 60 minutes, these are two of the worst three teams in the postseason. Toronto is 14th (2.29) and Ottawa is 15th (2.06), while St. Louis (2.0) interestingly brings up the rear.
When you add a filter to only 5-on-5 play, the Leafs and Sens are tied for 15th at 1.63 expected goals per 60 minutes. This speaks to the solid defensive play from both teams at even strength. As these series get into the later games, we should expect things to tighten up, as well as see refs swallow the whistles a bit more. This should lead to more 5-on-5 play, which is where these teams have been extremely strong in the series. I'll take the Under tonight in Toronto.
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-102)
New Jersey Devils (+225) at Carolina Hurricanes (-275) | O/U 5.5 (+105/-125)
The Devils (1-3) were able to grind out a win in Game 3, but now they'll have to win three straight to pull off the series upset against the Hurricanes (3-1). The series shifts back to Carolina, and tonight's fifth game is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C.
Goals have been tough to come by for the Devils this series, and that shouldn't really come as a surprise to anyone, considering Jack Hughes isn't in the lineup supplying top-six offensive production. Not to mention, the Canes are undoubtedly one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. New Jersey is averaging only 1.8 goals per game this series, and they've gone 2-1-1 to the Under as a team total of 2.0 goals this postseason. I'll play them to stay under 2.0 goals tonight on the road.
As I was alluding to, the Canes are a wagon defensively. They finished the regular season 10th in overall defense (2.65 GAA), as well as boasting the league's top penalty kill (83.61%). They're a perfect 12-for-12 (100%) on the PK in this series, which obviously tops the 16 teams in the hunt for the Cup. This Devils squad simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to contend in this series, and I'm expecting the Canes to put the clamps on tonight in front of their home crowd.
Pick: Devils Team Total Under 2.0 Goals (-135)
Minnesota Wild (+185) at Vegas Golden Knights (-225) | O/U 6.0 (-102/-118)
Let's head out to Sin City, where the Golden Knights (2-2) are coming off a 4-3 overtime winner against the Wild (2-2). This victory evened up the series, as well as shifted home ice back in their favor. Game 5 is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
With the total sitting at a flat 6.0 goals, this is a play on the Over all day in my opinion. With Kirill Kaprizov (4G, 4A) and Joel Eriksson Ek (1A) back in this mix, this Wild offense has reclaimed its status as an offensive juggernaut in the NHL landscape. Minnesota is scoring 3.0 goals per game this series, and they’ve racked up the fourth-most high-danger shots (16). They've definitely exposed Adin Hill as a liability, as he's logged a 3.30 GAA and a .854 SV% this postseason.
On the other hand, the Golden Knights are just as lethal offensively. They finished the regular season averaging 3.3 goals per game (fifth), as well as cashing 28.34% of their power-play chances (second). The man-advantage unit has been a force during the playoffs, as they're 4-for-11 (36.36%) to start the postseason. This was an area of concern for the Wild, as they finished the 82-game regular season ranked 30th on the PK (72.41%). This feels like a game where the floor is 4-2, but I think it skews higher in the 4-3, 5-2, or maybe even 5-4 range. I'll take the Over.
Pick: Over 6.0 Goals (-102)
Edmonton Oilers (+115) at Los Angeles Kings (-135) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)
The Kings (2-2) squandered their chances to take a commanding 3-1 series advantage, blowing a two-goal lead against the Oilers (2-2) back in game four. They eventually lost the contest 4-3, and the series now shifts back to California. Game five is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA.
I originally predicted that the Kings would win this series in five games. If they had held onto that lead in Game 4, we'd be looking pretty good with that take. However, this now feels like a series where the home team is going to win every game. This line of -135 is a bit lofty, but at the same time, it's warranted simply due to how dominant the Kings have been on home ice this year. Including the playoffs, they're 33-6-4, which equates to a 76.7% win rate.
This Kings team has plenty of offensive depth, which is truly the key to this series, in my opinion. The third line of Foegele-Danault-Moore has combined for 14 points in the series. With Los Angeles getting scoring contributions from the bottom six, they should continue to expose this horrible Edmonton defense and goaltending combo, which is still without top d-man Mattias Ekholm (undisclosed). During 5-on-5 play, the Oilers are 15th in GAA (3.09) during the postseason, while ranking 16th on the PK (53.33%). Give me the Kings to take care of business at home.
Pick: Kings Moneyline (-135)