Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/8)
The NHL regular season is winding down, and we have several high-leverage games on the schedule tonight. Below I'll dive into three of the games from a sports betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the ice. Here are my top NHL bets tonight.
Tuesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Red Wings (+105) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-126) | O/U 5.5 (-128/+104)
The Canadiens (38-30-9, 85 points) enter the night in possession of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, and the team that sits directly below them is the Red Wings (36-33-7, 79 points). This Atlantic Division tilt is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.
The Habs are on a heater, rattling off five consecutive wins. They're really playing well on both ends of the ice, but what stands out is that their defense is allowing only 1.6 goals per game during the five-game sample size. Meanwhile, the Wings are just 24th in scoring over the last 10 games, averaging only 2.68 goals per 60 minutes.
On the flip side, Detroit's defense continues to be a liability. Specifically, it's their penalty kill that's the biggest issue. The Red Wings are dead last on the PK (69.54%) this season. To put that in perspective, they're on track to be the third-worst PK of all time, where only the 1982-83 Kings (68.6%) and 1979-80 Kings (68.2%) ended with worse numbers. Overall, they're 22nd in GAA (2.92) and 21st in SV% (.891). I like the Canadiens, who are 21-12-5 at home, to collect the two points tonight.
Pick: Canadiens Moneyline (-126)
Ottawa Senators (-137) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+114) | O/U 6.5 (+110/-134)
The Blue Jackets (34-33-9, 77 points) have just about played themselves out of the playoffs at this point, as they're eight points behind the Canadiens for the final spot. They'll host the Senators (42-29-6, 90 points), who occupy the top Wild Card position. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH.
These teams just met in the Canadian capital on Sunday, and the Sens emerged with a 4-0 victory. With the Blue Jackets' defense being a massive fault, I expect the Senators to light them up for another three or four goals tonight. I'm going to take a flier on the plus-money payout that comes with the Over 6.5 goals. Columbus is now 29th in GAA (3.26) and 27th in SV% (.884), while sitting 25th in penalty-killing (75.98%) this season. They've allowed 4+ goals in each of their last four games.
While Ottawa is solid defensively, I do expect Columbus' offense to find some success as they return home to Nationwide. They're still an elite offense this season, scoring 3.1 goals per game (11th). What's interesting is that the Blue Jackets are ranked first in the NHL in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.54) over the last 10 games. They're just 26th in actual scoring (2.56) during the sample size, which implies that they're going through some bad "puck luck" at the moment. With the season on the line and their home fans behind them, I believe we'll see them light the lamp several times, helping to push this game over the number.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (+110)
Vegas Golden Knights (+105) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-126) | O/U 5.5 (-128/+104)
The NHL nightcap features a heavyweight clash in the Western Conference, with the Golden Knights (47-22-8, 102 points) taking on the Avalanche (47-27-4, 98 points). Vegas is still fighting for a division title entering tonight’s game, while Colorado is pretty much cemented into the third spot in the Central Division. This game is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO.
I was initially leaning toward playing the Avs in this game since they're very good at home (25-11-3). However, after diving into some of the other numbers, I actually think it's worth a shot to play the Knights as they continue to battle for a division title. For starters, Vegas has won two straight contests, and they're now 8-2-0 in their last 10 games.
Vegas' defense is finally rounding into form, as they're 10th in GAA (2.18) over the last 10 games while ranking first in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.18). The Golden Knights are sixth in goal differential per 60 minutes over the last 10 games (1.39), while once again leading the NHL in expected GD/60 (1.09).
The Avs are 10th in xGD/60 (0.2) over the last 10 games, so we have a decent edge favoring the Golden Knights in that category. Ultimately, this game is a bit of a toss-up, but I do think Vegas is a live underdog. I'll ride with them at +105 on the moneyline.
Pick: Golden Knights Moneyline (+105)