Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/21)
I absolutely love tonight's betting board in the NHL. Below, I've narrowed in on three games from the six-game slate, and I'll dive into each contest from a betting perspective. Here are my top NHL bets for Wednesday, January 21.
Wednesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Anaheim Ducks (+240) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-300) | O/U 6.5 (-135/+110)
Let's pick it up in the Mile High City, where the league-leading Avalanche (34-5-8) are gearing up to host the Ducks (25-21-3) in a Western Conference clash. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO.
The cat is obviously already out of the bag in this one - we're expecting some goals tonight in Denver. Whether you want to lay the juice with the Over at 6.5 goals, or bump it up to an alternate line of 7.0, I don't think you can go wrong either way. The Ducks have been an "over machine" recently, going 12-4 to the Over in their last 16 outings. They're 6-1 to the Over across their last seven games, while the Avs are 4-1 to the Over in their last five outings.
Colorado boasts the league's best offense, averaging an insane 3.97 goals per 60 minutes. They should thrive against this Anaheim squad that has struggled to keep the puck out their own net. The Ducks are 31st in GA/60 minutes (3.51), 30th in team SV% (.875), and 23rd on the penalty kill (77.58%). Anaheim does boast the 12th-best offense this season (3.23 G/60), and they're also averaging 3.25 goals per game during their current 4-0-0 run. Both offenses should find enough success to push this final score over the 6.5-goal total.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-135)
Pittsburgh Penguins (-120) vs. Calgary Flames (+100) | O/U 6.0 (-105/-115)
The Flames (21-23-5) are fresh off of their Rasmus Andersson trade to the Golden Knights, and they're already 0-0-1 in the post-Andersson era. They'll take on the Penguins (23-14-11) this evening in a cross-conference tilt. This contest gets underway at 9:30 p.m. ET from the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.
The Flames have been a pretty easy fade this season, and things could get worse for Calgary as the trade rumors continue to swirl. I'll bet against Calgary again tonight, backing Pittsburgh to improve to 2-0 on its current four-game West Coast road trip. They took care of Seattle 6-3 on Monday, moving to 8-2-2 in their last 12 contests.
Really, the big issue that I have with Calgary is their lack of offensive production. The Flames are 29th in G/60 minutes (2.53), and 31st in both shooting% (8.62%) and on the power play (14.94%). The disparity in special teams could be the difference maker for us Pittsburgh bettors, as the Pens boast the third-best man advantage unit (28.03%) while sitting fourth on the penalty kill (83.10%). Finally, just to slam home the anti-Calgary angle, they're just 30th in xGoals% (45.33%) over the last 10 days. Neither the baseline statistics nor underlying metrics support this team, and I'll gladly fade them while they're down. Give me Pittsburgh on the moneyline.
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline (-120)
New York Islanders (-118) vs. Seattle Kraken (-102) | O/U 5.5 (-118/-102)
The Kraken (21-18-9) have dropped four straight games (0-3-1), sliding to 10th place in the Western Conference. They'll try to snap their skid tonight when they take on the Islanders (27-17-5), who have climbed to sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Puck drop is slated for 9:30 p.m. ET from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA.
These are typically a couple of defensive-focused teams, which is likely why we're seeing a total of just 5.5 goals tonight in Seattle. Considering each team's current form, I think this number should be a flat 6.0, which ultimately means that we're getting a nice discount. New York has been buzzing offensively, going over the total in six of its last nine games. Over their last 10 games, the Isles are 16th in G/60 minutes (3.22) and 10th in shooting% (12.74%).
Seattle is 15th (3.24) and eighth (13.69%) in those respective categories. Additionally, the Kraken's power-play unit has come to life recently, climbing to 10th overall in the league at 23.36%. Both defenses rank 10th or worse in both GA/60 minutes and high-danger SOG faced over the last 10 games as well. This game probably won't see as much scoring as the Ducks/Avalanche contest, but I still think a 4-2 final is within reach. Let's play the over.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-118)