Top NHL Playoffs Betting Odds & Picks for Sunday, May 8 (2022)
Game 4 is set to get underway in four different series in the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday with some great betting angles to attack. Below, I give out my two best bets for Sunday’s games.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Carolina Hurricanes (+115) @ Boston Bruins (-135), o/u 5.5 (-115/-105)
The Boston Bruins will look to even up the series following Friday’s 4-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. While each of the first three games of this series has gone over this total, It is time for regression to set in.
These two teams have each been outplaying their expected goals for (xGF) this series, and that is not sustainable. Despite six or more total goals scored in each of the first three games, the combined xGF was just 4.92 in Game 1 and 4.61 in Game 3.
Game 2 was the only outing thus far where the scoring output matched the xGF, which makes sense considering four of the goals scored in that game were either on the power play or on an empty net. This matchup is due for a low scoring, which I think we will see in a competitive Game 4.
Jeremy Swayman is the projected starting goaltender for the Bruins once again and did his job well in Game 3 as he stopped 25 of 27 shots for a 0.926 save percentage. This stat line aligns with what the Boston defense was able to do in front of the net as they played their best game yet, allowing Carolina to generate just 1.74 xGF.
Boston’s blue line looked much more like its dominant self in Game 3 as the Bruins have had the best defense in the league this season. This year, Boston ranks first in the league in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).
Best Bet: Hurricanes/Bruins u5.5 (-105)
Toronto Maple Leafs (+100) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-120), o/u 6.5 (-110/-110)
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to even up the series following Friday’s 5-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. That score looks much worse than the game actually was as the Lightning were pressing down 3-2 late in the third and generating many good looks on net, however, Toronto was able to bury two consecutive empty-netters to finish the game.
While Tampa Bay looked awful in the first two periods of that game, they found something in that third to hang their hats on and to bring into Game 4. This game feels like a must-win for Tampa Bay because if they have to travel back to Toronto down 3-1 in the series, it is most likely a wrap.
Of course, as history has shown, Toronto being up 3-1 in the first round has been a curse. However, this year feels as though they would finally move on from the first round if that were to be the case.
That being said, I am going to continue betting the Vasilevskiy trend until it finally loses. The trend I am talking about is the following: coming off of a loss over the past three postseasons, Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is 15-0 with a save percentage around 0.970.
That stat line is utterly absurd and there is a good shot at him extending that streak on home ice in Game 4. Additionally, I am looking to fade Toronto’s starting goaltender Jack Campbell.
Given his track record, I do not believe that Campbell’s play thus far is sustainable. Through the first three games, Campbell boasts a game average of +0.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
For the season as a whole, Campbell’s five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes is -0.2. This is not a negligible difference, and the fact that he has pulled this off against one of the best offensives in the league makes me even more confident that regression is looming for the Maple Leafs’ netminder.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-120)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.