Top Odds & Picks for NASCAR at the Brickyard Verizon 200: Best Matchup Bets (2022)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Indianapolis for one of the best new traditions in racing. Since 2021, NASCAR has shared the weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with the IndyCar series. Here are our top picks for Sunday’s Cup race, the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Odds to Win the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard
Best Picks for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard
Ever since the debut of the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, the NASCAR Cup Series has started to frequent more road courses, or tracks with both left and right turns. Although NASCAR catches flak for its drivers only knowing how to make left turns, some of the best road-course racers compete in the series.
First-time winners have earned the checkered flag in each of the first three road-course races this season. But seven-time road course winner Chase Elliott is the favorite to wind up in victory lane at Indy, and as much as I hate buying high, I'm making an exception this weekend.
Matchup A: Larson (+150 (.75u) at DraftKings) vs. Elliott
I love the idea of targeting Elliott this weekend. However, I prefer another source of value: the matchup markets at DraftKings. Elliott is probably the better road-course talent, but Larson's odds of beating just his teammate are better than the 40% number you'll find here.
Multiple factors, like technical failures, other drivers' wrecks, and strategy calls are all out of the drivers' hands, so the odds of any driver beating another are closer to 50% than you would think—at least when they're in equal equipment. DraftKings listing Elliott at -170—thus giving him a 63.5% chance of beating Larson—feels like an overcorrection for Elliott's talent.
Larson finished one spot ahead of Elliott here last season. He also beat Elliott in four of the seven road-course races last season. Larson even finished second in two of the races he lost to Elliott. Of course, Larson is yet to beat Elliott at a road course this year, but this play could be a smart hedge for an Elliott outright.
Other books recognize the factors I describe. BetMGM has Elliott at -155 and Larson at +120. Barstool has Elliott at -162 and Larson at +124. You're not going to find these kinds of returns elsewhere, so I advise locking in this play at DraftKings.
Matchup B: Blaney (+140 (.75u) at DraftKings) vs. Reddick
The Elliott and Larson marchup isn't the only one I think has been mispriced. Blaney has almost the same odds as Larson does despite having actually beaten his opponent at a road course this year: Blaney finished sixth at Sonoma to Reddick's 35th.
Further, Blaney has been solid at road courses all year. He finished sixth at Circuit of the Americas and 11th at Road America, and he led laps in both events. Reddick finished just one spot ahead of Blaney at Circuit of the Americas, although Reddick won at Road America.
Blaney also finished second at this track last season. In contrast, Reddick finished an unimpressive 21st. The Richard Childress Racing driver has a ton of raw talent, but his aggressive style exposes him to additional risks. Meanwhile, Blaney needs to record consistent results to end the year. Look for his more conservative approach to help him beat Reddick.
We're also getting more value at DraftKings than other books dare provide. BetMGM has Reddick at -155 and Blaney at +120. Barstool has Reddick at -157 and Blaney at +120. Again, you won't find these kinds of returns elsewhere, and you'll only need either Blaney or Larson to beat their opponent to secure a profit. Those are two of my favorite picks for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.