Top Odds & Picks for NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2022)
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has historically been given to an offensive player. Only one defensive player, SS Eric Berry in 2015, has won the award over the last 14 years.
During that period, 10 of the 14 winners were quarterbacks, including the last four years. This award goes to players who have overcome adversity from the prior season and have the opportunity to outperform expectations. Below are three of the players I expect to be in consideration for this award at year-end.
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Mitchell Trubisky (+2000 FanDuel)
Mitchell Trubisky fits the criteria outlined above and is a player to target for this award. While the Steelers used first-round draft capital on Kenny Pickett, early indications from training camp point to Trubisky being given every opportunity to start the year as QB1.
Supported by a strong defense and offensive playmakers, Trubisky’s current situation is similar to his first full year starting in Chicago. In 2018, Trubisky was third in total QBR, finishing with 27 total touchdowns. A year off to learn behind Josh Allen in a competent offensive scheme should work wonders for Trubisky to cleanse himself from the Matt Nagy offense.
Additionally, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his 15 years of coaching. The Steelers organization should provide the structure needed for a career revival similar to Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, who won the award in 2019. If Tomlin’s streak continues and the Steelers are in playoff contention with Trubisky under center, he will be one of the finalists for this award.
Baker Mayfield (+1200 DraftKings)
Baker Mayfield is another young QB who has an opportunity to turn his career around with a new team. Baker’s well-documented offseason ultimately saw him traded to the Carolina Panthers. Last year’s poor performance can partially be attributed to the torn labrum he suffered early on in the season. The decision to play through the injury may have cost the former No. 1 overall pick his job in Cleveland, but the fresh start may be what he needs to get his career back on track.
Baker led the Browns to the playoffs with a 3.25 TD-INT ratio only two seasons ago. His talent has never been an issue, and dynamic playmakers will support him in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore.
Saquon Barkley (+2000 PointsBet)
Saquon Barkley may have fit the bill for this award better last year, coming off his ACL tear. Even so, Barkley is a strong candidate if he were to return to the form we saw his first two years in the league. While he didn’t sit out the entire year last year from a significant injury, Barkley did suffer an unfortunate ankle injury away from the play in Week 5 against the Cowboys. This was a week after he started to return to his pre-ACL version with a 126-yard and two touchdown performance in Week 4. The ankle injury cost Barkley the next four games and put a damper on the return to his normal dynamic playmaking ability.
Couple a healthy offseason with new offensive-minded head coach Brian Daboll, and we may have the opportunity to see Barkley exceed his rookie year numbers of over 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns.
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