Top Olympic Baseball Betting Picks: USA vs. Japan (8/2)
Just one more week remains of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, and as seems to be the case with many of the recent summer games, the United States and China are jockeying for the top spot on the medal leaderboard. China has 24 gold medals to lead all nations and 51 total medals – good enough for second. The United States’ 20 golds are second to China, but their 59 overall medals are the most.
Team USA has the chance to take two steps closer to two more medals on Monday, as the baseball team battles Japan and the women’s soccer team takes on border-rivals Canada in the quarterfinals. Both games start early – 4:00 AM on the pitch and 6:00 AM on the diamond – so get those bets in early. Here’s my best bet for each game.
Bet $20 on the USA to Win vs. Japan, win $100 Regardless of Outcome >>
On the diamond, Team USA will send Rays’ prospect Shane Baz to the mound against former New York Yankee Masahiro Tanaka and Team Japan. This is about as high-profile of a pitching matchup as we’re going to get in these Olympics, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Let’s dive in.
Baz is the Rays’ number-five overall prospect, and the 22-year old has lived up to the hype so far this season in the minors. Baz was promoted from AA – where he owned a 2.48 ERA, a 0.735 WHIP, and a 24.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio – to AAA, where he’s continued his dominance. His ERA sits at 1.96, and he’s striking out 12.9 batters per nine innings. Baz will look to continue Team USA’s strong performance on the mound; they’re pitching to a tournament-best 1.50 ERA through the first two games, and their bullpen has been especially effective. USA relievers have pitched seven innings thus far and have allowed just a single run. That’ll be a big factor for the under, as Japan has beat up on opposing bullpens so far through their first two games and won’t have that same luxury against the US.
For Japan, Tanaka will take the hill looking to pitch as well as he has in Japan’s professional league this season. In his first year back in his native country, Tanaka owns a 2.86 ERA and has exhibited his usual top-notch control. He’s struck out 76 hitters and walked just 15, and he’ll rely on his heavy splitter and sinker to force Team USA to beat the ball into the ground for easy outs. This USA lineup has yet to face a pitcher with the pedigree and experience of Tanaka, and I expect them to struggle the first time or two through the lineup.
Digging a bit deeper shows that of the USA’s 12 runs scored, eight came against a severely overmatched Israel squad. They pushed just four runs across on the South Korean team, whose strength is certainly not pitching. Tanaka will give this lineup all sorts of fits. Look for this game to be tight from start to finish.
Pick: USA / Japan Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.