Top Olympic Basketball Betting Picks: USA vs. Spain (8/3)
Since dropping their opening round game to France, Team USA has silenced the doubters and played like the Team USA we all expected – albeit against much weaker competition.
The Americans have won each of the last two games over Iran and the Czech Republic by a combined 89 points and have topped the 100-point mark in each. But, the competition jumps up a level on Tuesday morning, as the United States will take on their first team with a legitimate roster full of NBA players since their loss to France. Will they stay hot, or will Spain put an end to Team USA’s gold medal hopes? Here’s my best bet for a 12:40 AM start time between the United States and Spain on the hardwood.
Bet $20 on USA to Win vs. Spain, win $100 Regardless of Outcome >>
After Team USA dropped 120 points on Iran and 119 on the Czech Republic, it seems almost unfathomable to consider taking an under, especially against another team with NBA pedigree. But, I think this line is inflated because of the United States’ recent outputs against significantly inferior competition. Despite being 12.5-point underdogs tomorrow morning, Spain is absolutely not inferior competition.
Spain is an older team. Their roster is comprised of Pau Gasol (41 years old), Marc Gasol (36), Rudy Fernandez (36), Sergio Rodriguez (35), Sergio Llull (33), Victor Claver (32), and Ricky Rubio (30). The only player under the age of 30 who can be viewed as a legitimate contributor is Willy Hernangomez at age 27. This team will not try and push the pace or run up and down the floor with the US. If they let Team USA control the pace, this game will be over before it starts. So look for Spain to slow the game down, use most of the shot clock, play solid defense, and not let Team USA get out in transition.
Team Spain has also been prone to much lower-scoring games in these Olympics, and they’ve yet to top the 90-point plateau. They defeated Japan 88-77 (165 total points), beat Argentina 81-71 (152), and were knocked off by Luka Doncic and Slovenia 95-87 (182). Keep in mind, Slovenia went to the line 27 times in that game, and the total still only went over the 181-point mark by a single point. Team USA only averages 18 free throws per game, so Spain shouldn’t be in too much danger of giving away so many points at the line again.
Digging into Team USA’s schedule shows that they struggle against better competition, especially against teams that play together frequently and have chemistry. They struggled mightily against France and managed to score just 76 points in a seven-point loss. And in exhibition play, they scored just 87 points against a Nigeria team with eight NBA players, scored just 83 against a strong Australia team, and 83 points against this very same Spanish team. The only outlier was a 108-point output against an uncharacteristically weak Argentina squad.
The United States should struggle to get clean looks against a Spain team with a ton of chemistry, and they won’t be able to get out in transition as much as they’d like. That’s going to be an issue; the US really likes to score on the fast break. They average 23.3 points per game in transition but managed just 15 against France, who tried to do exactly what Spain will try to do: slow the game down. And Spain is good at slowing the game down; they allow just 15.3 transition points per game. Also, just two weeks ago, these two countries combined for just 159 points in an 83-76 Team USA victory. It’s tough to envision them finding 23 more points in a much higher-stakes matchup where the defense will be turned up a notch.
Finally, the team totals lean towards the under. Team USA’s total is set at 96.5 (-115 to the under), and Spain’s total sits at 83.5 (-115 to the under). If the books expect 180 combined points, we’re getting a free point of value here, so I recommend jumping on it before it disappears.
Pick: United States / Spain Under 181 (-115)
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.