Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchday 10 (2021)
Last week in the Premier League was one of the most fun weekends to date. Chelsea torched last-place Norwich City to the tune of seven goals in a shutout victory to maintain first place. Watford surprised Everton with a 5-2 win, and West Ham blanked Tottenham to pull back into a Champions League position.
And in perhaps the most surprising outcome of the weekend, Liverpool thrashed Manchester United 5-0, as the Reds poured it on relentlessly from start to finish. As a result, rumors are swirling all over Manchester about the manager’s job security, the depth of the team, and the chances United realistically has of competing in the Premier League this season and beyond.
As for our best bets, we swept the card for a second straight week, making us 4-0 the last two weeks and up 4.05 units. So let’s keep it rolling here with a familiar plus-money bet and another under that holds a ton of value.
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Chelsea To Win To Nil (+105)
If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it. For some reason, the books are still offering us great odds on Chelsea to beat terrible teams in shutout fashion, and until they give us a reason not to continue profiting off of them, we’re going to keep doing so.
Coming into last week, we were 3-1 on Chelsea totals. Thanks to the Blues’ clean sheet victory over Norwich City on Saturday, our bets on Chelsea totals have moved to 4-1, including a perfect 2-0 on “to win to nil†bets. Despite being the road team this weekend, it’s impossible to pass on plus-money odds for the first place and best defensive team in the Premier League to pitch another shutout win over the 19th place team – Newcastle United.
Through nine weeks, the Blues have still allowed just three total goals and one in open play. Their expected goals allowed of 0.2 last week was the best mark by any team in the Premier League so far this year, and sure it came against a struggling Norwich City team, but this Newcastle squad has just two more points than Norwich on the year. So they’re not much better, and even though they’re at home, it won’t matter. Chelsea’s defending is too suffocating, and their goalkeeping is too strong, no matter which of their two keepers they decide to start.
Newcastle has scored 11 goals on the year, which is 12th in the league. Not great by any means, but also respectable, especially for a team without a victory yet. However, digging deeper shows that the Magpies have outperformed expectations on the attack. Their expected goals total on the year is just 9.5 – third-worst among the 20 teams, and their expected goal differential is also third-worst. Keep in mind how easy Newcastle’s schedule has been so far, as well. Already five of their nine opponents sit 12th or lower in the standings – a big reason why they’ve over-performed on offense. I expect them to regress towards expectations against the best defensive squad they’ve faced to date, by far.
Of course, Chelsea still has to win the game for this bet to cash, even if they shut Newcastle out. As was the case last week, Chelsea is motivated. They’re one point ahead of the rest of the table in first place, and the Blues know that when they play a poor team at the bottom of the standings, three points is the only option. They can’t leave anything to chance or any points on the table with so many strong teams on their heels. Scoring shouldn’t be an issue for Chelsea; Newcastle is second-worst in expected goals allowed, actual goals allowed, and goal differential.
Chelsea early and often in this one, no matter which 11 players they start. As I mentioned last week, they’re deep, and their bench players start and rotate in often. So they’ll be ready to go. Bet this one down to even-money.
Southampton / Watford Under 2.5 Goals (-105)
This is a matchup of two feeble offensive sides, and overall, two poor teams ranked 14th and 16th in the standings. Nevertheless, we’re getting nearly even money, which is a great value that I expect to dry up quickly. So, if you agree with this bet, don’t wait until the weekend – grab it now and play it down to -115.
Starting with Watford, they’ve been an easy team to lean towards the over on all year. They’ve already allowed 17 goals in just nine matches, third-most in the league, and have a mark of 16.7 expected goals allowed – tied for second-most. Their last two games have seen a combined 12 goals as well. So why would we take an under on this team? Firstly, Southampton isn’t even close to the offensive team to take advantage of Watford’s shortcomings. And secondly, these last two games filled with goals are entirely out of the norm for Watford.
Southampton only has eight goals in nine games this season, so less than a goal per game. That’s third-worst in the Premier League. They’ve also only earned two road points this year, and they’ll be on the road at Watford this weekend, so they’re not scoring enough to win matches and are instead playing conservatively to capture a single point and stay out of the relegation zone. I think that’ll be the plan against Watford as well.
I mentioned Watford’s recent high goal totals are a bit of a mirage. Their six games before the last two all went under the 2.5 goal total, and they’ve been shut out five times already this season. They’ve also been held under 1.0 expected goals five times, tied for the most of any team in the league. Simply put, Watford has trouble generating anything on offense and has controlled possession just twice in nine games. This has put a lot of pressure on their defense which has led to goals, but their opponent in Southampton has only won the possession battle four times, so they’re not a team to force Watford into the playing style that’s given them trouble all year.
This is a relatively evenly-matched game, and I don’t expect much scoring at all – especially early. The most I see here is a 1-1 draw, and even if that holds, we’ll still cover by a half-goal.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.