Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchday 11 (2021)
For the first time all season, the first-place team in the Premier League is a full three points clear of the rest of the field. Thanks to Brighton’s wild, come-from-behind win over Liverpool, coupled with a Chelsea thrashing of 19th-place Newcastle United, the Blues have some breathing room at the top of the table.
However, Manchester City is right on Liverpool and Chelsea’s heels, and they’ve been in fantastic form lately – earning 10 of 12 possible points since their last defeat. Manchester United is going the opposite direction, who now sits eight points behind first place, tied for fifth place, and just a point away from falling out of a Europa League berth. The Red Devils have secured just a single point in their last four matches and have seen their goal differential drop to just +4.
Our best bets are performing just the opposite of Manchester United. We’ve now had three straight perfect weeks, tallying a 6-0 record and +6.1 units in profit. Here’s what’s on tap on Matchday 11 as we look to stay hot.
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Newcastle United / Brighton & Hove Albion: Both Teams To Score (-110)
Newcastle was the team we bet on last week to get shut out and lose to Chelsea, and the bet cashed pretty easily. But nobody scores on Chelsea. Recency bias is playing into this line and giving us great value.
Outside the Chelsea match, Newcastle has scored in all but one other game this year – Matchday 2 at Aston Villa when the Magpies still controlled 53% of possession. They may be 19th in the standings, but they’re a pretty solid bet to get on the scoresheet nearly every week. They’re also -165 to score at least a goal in this match, giving them a 62.3% implied odds of finding the back of the net. The offense isn’t why Newcastle is in danger of relegation – they’re tied for 13th in goals which isn’t great, but certainly isn’t alarmingly bad. Defense is, and that’s great for our bet.
I mentioned Newcastle has scored in eight of 10 matches; they’ve also allowed a goal in every single match this year, and they’ve played some feeble offensive teams so far. So even though Brighton has just 11 goals in ten games, they should have no problem putting something together on the attack this weekend. They’re -750 to get on the board in this one, so clearly, the books expect at least a goal, which is all we need.
The Seagulls also have momentum on their side. After getting thrashed 4-1 by Manchester City and falling behind 2-0 early to Liverpool, Brighton woke up and buried two goals to draw level with the Reds, earning a point in the process. That was a huge point and something that I think will kick-start the Brighton attack.
Plus, Newcastle has conceded 23 goals already this year. They’re playing for a Europa berth, and that may not mean a whole lot to a big club like Manchester City or Liverpool, but it means a lot to a club like Brighton, who rarely find themselves in the top half of the Premier League standings.
I believe this match has a chance to be a sneakily-offensive minded one with two motivated teams – one trying to qualify for a huge international tournament and the other aiming to avoid relegation. So play this one down to -120.
Brentford / Norwich City Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
Playing Norwich City under has not been a profitable endeavor this year. Six of their ten matches have sailed over the 2.5 goal total, but it’s not because they’re involved in a back-and-forth, high-octane matches. Instead, it’s because they can’t keep the ball out of their net.
The Canaries allowed three goals to Liverpool, five to Manchester City, three to Watford, and an astounding seven to Chelsea, and in those games combined to score just a single goal. Luckily for us, Brentford doesn’t have the offensive prowess to do to Norwich what many teams have done already this year – light up the scoreboard.
Brentford has just 12 goals in 10 games, seven of which came in a three-game span. They’ve managed to score just twice in the three games since. Is it easy to score on Norwich? Sure, but that’s not the style that Brentford plays, and I don’t see them scoring more than twice.
Even if the Bees do score twice, I don’t see Norwich getting on the board at all. They’ve somehow only scored three times this entire season and managed their first goal since September 18th last week against Leeds United. September 18th! Over a month without scoring! Brentford is a sound defensive side, and they’re not going to let a poor Norwich team get on the scoreboard and ruin their chance at three important points. They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest goals against this year, and their expected goals against of 11.3 are sixth-lowest.
Norwich is also injured, with three starters on an already non-competitive team set to miss this match. They’ll also be on the road, and they haven’t found the back of the net away from home yet this year. I like this bet down to -125.
Chelsea To Win To Nil (-120)
Why stop now? We’re 5-1 on Chelsea unders and 3-0 on “to win to nil bets†in the last three weeks. Why the books are still giving us solid odds on this bet, I have no idea. I usually only include two best bets per article, but we’re going to keep playing this until we’re given a reason not to. Just so I don’t sound repetitive week after week, here’s a quick handicap.
Chelsea has allowed three goals in 10 games and just one in open play. They also have the luxury of playing their third consecutive game against a team in the relegation zone – this weekend, they’ll host Burnley. Burnley is the 18th place team, and they’ll be traveling to Stamford Bridge to play in front of an always-intense Blues crowd. Chelsea wins this one handily and records yet another clean sheet – their eighth in 11 matches.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.