Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchday 12 (2021)
Welcome back from our third international break already this season, as countries continue their World Cup qualifiers across the globe. Luckily for us, we won’t have another international break until March, so we’ve got about four interrupted months of Premier League soccer ahead of us.
Let’s recap the table before we dive into best bets. Chelsea still sits at the top, three points clear of everyone else. Manchester City, West Ham, and Liverpool round out the top four and currently hold Champions League qualifier positions. Just five points separate fifth and 12th place, so the race for Europa bids is going to be a fun one as the season wears on. And finally, Burnley, Newcastle, and Norwich City round out the bottom three spots of the standings and are unfortunately staring relegation in the face. It may only be the 12th week of games, but those teams need to kick it into gear, and quickly.
As for our best bets, we went just 1-2 two weeks ago, snapping a three-week run of perfection that netted us a 6-0 mark and +6.1 units in our wallets. Here’s who we’re on this weekend to restart a hot streak.
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Newcastle United / Brentford Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
This line opened at -110 at some books, and -115 at others, so the value is slowly disappearing. Jump on this one before it’s out of reach – I wouldn’t play it any lower than -130.
Simply put – these teams absolutely do not score goals. They’ve combined to score just 25 goals in 22 games. For context, Liverpool has scored 31 times on their own, and there are four teams who have 20 or more goals for. The ball just isn’t going into the back of the net, and it’s not bad luck either. Brentford’s expected goals on the year is just 15.2, so they’ve left only 2.2 goals on the table through 11 games. On the other side, Newcastle has an expected goals mark of just 10.0 – second-worst in the entire Premier League. If you can believe it, they’re actually getting slightly lucky, as they’ve scored 12 times. It’s not much of a regression, but they are due for some, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see it against a really sound defensive side in Brentford – a team who desperately needs to earn a point any way they can get one.
The Bees have allowed just 14 goals on the year, ninth-fewest in the league, and their expected goals allowed of 12.2 is sixth-fewest. They may not be one of the better teams in the division, but they certainly are one of the better teams defending their own half. They should have no problem keeping a feeble Newcastle attack out of their net, especially considering they held Chelsea to just a single goal, shut out Arsenal, and held West Ham to one as well. Brentford is also a desperate team, and I don’t see them selling all out on the attack and leaving their defense vulnerable. The Bees have dropped all of their last four matches after losing just one of their first seven. The wheels are coming off, and they need to get back to what they do best – winning low-scoring affairs. Newcastle is the perfect team to “get right†against.
Newcastle is the worrisome side on defense – they’ve allowed the second-most goals in the league and have the third-highest expected goals against mark. Obviously part of the reason I expected a more sound defensive game from the Magpies is because Brentford isn’t a big offensive threat – they’ve eclipsed one goal just four times this year. But I also like that Newcastle is the home team. They’ll have their supporters at their backs, and coming off a bye week, the crowd will be extra-energized.
Norwich City Three-Way Line +160
I can’t believe I’m backing Norwich City either, but there is way too much value in this draw-no bet wager. If this game ends in a tie, we push. No harm, no foul. Southampton shouldn’t be laying -200 on the three-way line to anyone in the Premier League, and probably shouldn’t even be laying that price against some teams in the Championship Division. I would play this one down to +150, but wouldn’t touch the two-way line at all.
There’s no denying Norwich City has been pretty bad this season, and has all but solidified their standing as a yo-yo team that bounces between the top two divisions each year. They’re too good for the Championship, but not good enough for the Premier League. However, they actually have been playing better lately, and have earned points in three of their last five matches including a surprise victory over Brentford two weekends ago. The Canaries are also the home team, and despite having just five total points on the year, they’ve been significantly better at their home stadium. They’ve allowed six more goals on the road than at home, so they really do feed off the energy of the crowd when they have the chance. Norwich will also welcome a new manager, Dean Smith, so there’s a motivational edge as well.
Southampton, Norwich’s opponent, has trouble scoring too. But they’re on a mini-hot streak that I think has inflated this line. Why? Because they really haven’t played any team of much quality during their four-match point streak. They’ve beaten Leeds United, Watford, and Aston Villa, and they drew with Burnley. Those teams are currently the 15th-18th place teams in the league. Southampton has also only scored 10 times this year, less than a goal per game. So while Norwich is obviously having all kinds of trouble generating offense, so is Southampton. This could be a really nice opportunity for the Canaries to come out flying in front of the home crowd and turn up the heat on the attack.
At the end of the day, the most likely outcome here is a draw between two of the lower teams in the league, but at +160, it’s impossible to pass on a home Norwich City team with growing confidence and the motivation to stay out of the relegation zone who very well could bury an early goal a ride it all the way to the finish for their new manager.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.