Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchday 4 (2021)
Just as the Premier League betting season was picking up steam, we had to pause for the first international break of the year. Many players ventured off to suit up for their home country in hopes of qualifying for the World Cup, while others used the week off to rest up and get healthy for a long stretch of upcoming matches.
As we head into Matchday 4, weâve got many of the usual suspects near the top â Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool in the top five, with Manchester City just a point off their pace. But the top two teams in the table couldnât have been predicted by even the most shrewd bettor. Tottenham remains the only perfect side, capturing nine out of a possible nine points, and West Ham, by virtue of a ton of tiebreakers, sits in second place as one of just two teams to have 10 goals scored on their ledger already.
To recap our year so far, best bets are 3-3-1, which could obviously be better, but weâre up 1.1 units thanks to plus-money winners in back-to-back weeks. Matchday 4 features a ton of heavy favorites, so much of the value on the board has already dried up. Luckily for us, there are still two lines I really like â one side and one total â heading into this weekend.
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Tottenham Hotspur / Crystal Palace: Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
This line opened at -114, and itâs been bet down a little bit already, but I expect it to fall even further as the week progresses. I like it down to -135, but if and when it eclipses that number, itâll be out of range for me.
As I detailed in the open, Tottenham sits alone in first place, and theyâve done it in perhaps the most unconventional way possible: three 1-0 victories. Make no mistake, Crystal Palace is not a good team, but Tottenham has already played two teams who most likely wonât finish in the top half of the table. They were perfectly content clogging up their defending half and putting away a timely goal for a simple 1-0 victory. They arenât a team whose style is conducive to âpouring it onâ â especially on the road, which is where theyâll be on Saturday â so despite being the far better team, I donât anticipate them running away with this game and blowing Crystal Palace out with a barrage of scoring.
Tottenhamâs lowly three goals on the year may seem like a fluke, but according to their advanced metrics, itâs right on par with expectations. Spurs have a total of just 3.7 expected goals on the year with an adjusted goals mark of 3.3 â both numbers just a shade higher than their actual output. Now theyâll battle a Crystal Palace side whoâve not only been stout defensively, have been outperforming expectations offensively, and are due for regression.
Theyâve scored five goals in three games, which is right in the middle of the pack in the Premier League, but their expected goals number on the season is just 1.5 â dead last in the entire division. Their adjusted goals metric is also just 2.1, which is last among the 18 teams whoâve scored a goal on the year. Palaceâs attack is barren, and itâs going to have a world of trouble scoring against one of the better defensive sides in the Premier League.
Crystal Palace has an expected goals allowed per game of 1.0, and theyâve only allowed two actual goals on the year. Theyâve also drawn in two of their three matches, so their style of play is just like Tottenhamâs â close, tight games decided by opportunistic chances â Crystal Palace just hasnât generated many chances to take advantage of.
My model projects 2.05 total goals in this match, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw. I donât see Crystal Palace breaking through, so our under is still safe even if Tottenham scores a second goal late.
West Ham United: Two-Way (-130; 0.75u) & Three-Way (+145; 0.25u)
For those who havenât been following the best bets series, the two-way line marks a draw as a push, so if the teams tie, you get your money back. The three-way line offers a higher potential payout in exchange for a draw being marked as a loss. Like we did with Newcastle United two weeks ago, despite it not going our way, weâre putting three-quarters of a unit on the two-way line and one-quarter on the three-way line.
West Ham has been the most surprising team in the entire Premier League, especially on attack where theyâve scored 10 goals already. Only powerhouse Manchester City has cracked double-digit scoring through three games. Granted, West Ham hasnât played the Premier League class just yet, but their 6.0 expected goals are still fourth-best in the entire division. Theyâve also got the highest adjusted goals (9.4) in the league, and their expected output per game of 2.56 goals is second to Manchester City and one of just three teams to eclipse two per game.
Many will focus on the fact that these goals have been against weak competition, which is certainly true, but theyâre about to play some more weak competition this weekend, and theyâve proven to me that they do not play down to their opponentâs skill level. Southampton, the team tasked with slowing the Hammers down on Saturday, have an expected goals against of 5.3 on the year â fifth-worst in the Premier League. Not exactly reassuring for fans of Southampton, but great for us as West Ham backers.
FiveThirtyEight gives West Ham a 43% chance to win, and Kick Form gives the Hammers a 55% likelihood, despite being the away team. My projections give West Ham a 52.8% chance at victory as well. Being +145 on the three-way line is an implied odds of 40.8%, so weâve got an edge using all three projections.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.