Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchday 7 (2021)
We’ve got a new team in sole possession of the top spot of the Premier League table: Liverpool. The Reds didn’t secure all three points against Brentford in a disappointing 3-3 draw, yet still climbed into first place after losses by Chelsea and Manchester United. Chelsea dropping a 1-0 match to Manchester City is a loss that can be forgiven. Manchester United getting shut out at home in a 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa? That’s certainly one that’ll haunt United fans if they finish just outside Champions League qualification this season.
We head into Matchday 7 coming off a disappointing split week. Southampton and Wolverhampton played the low-scoring match we expected, but Arsenal exploded for three goals in a 3-1 victory over Tottenham, spoiling a second winner of the day on the under. This week, I’ve got an undervalued side, a total, and a team total on tap as we seek to win back the quarter-unit we dropped last Sunday.
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Chelsea / Southampton Under 2.5 Goals (+110, 0.75u); Southampton Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (+100, 0.25u)
Another week, another under in a match featuring Southampton or Chelsea, and in this case, we have both. If you read last week’s writeup on the Southampton vs. Wolverhampton game, a lot of the same principles apply to this weekend’s clash with the Blues. Plain and simple: I don’t expect Southampton to score, so I’m adding their team total under 0.5 goals at even money.
Chelsea is one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League, and they might be the best when Edouard Mendy is in goal. They’ve allowed two goals in six matches – to Liverpool and Manchester City, the top two teams in the table. They’ll be at home in front of their supporters, and they’ve allowed just a single goal at Stamford Bridge this season. And, they’ve positively smothered inferior competition. Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, and Tottenham have not only combined to score zero goals against Chelsea, they also combined for just 3.2 expected goals.
Southampton has been shut out in three straight matches and have just four goals on the year. That’s better than just last-place Norwich City and the team who beat them last weekend – Wolves. My model gives them the lowest expected output of any team this week, and the under is now 66.7% in their matches, so I’m allocating a quarter-unit on the Saints to get shut out again.
I’m sure there’s a bit of hesitancy on what we’re using the other 0.75 units for because Chelsea just ruined our under two weekends ago, and they’ve made a bit of a habit of pouring in goals late against bad teams. That’s certainly a fear, but I think we’re getting a slightly weakened Chelsea lineup. For starters, they just played a Champions League match on Wednesday against Juventus – the players who started both games may be a bit fatigued. The Blues will also be without a few players, namely Christian Pulisic and N’Golo Kante, who are two of their best.
And finally, the team total for Chelsea is pointing towards this under. They’re -190 to score under 2.5 goals, and since we’re already confident that they’ll keep Southampton off the scoresheet, we should also be confident in a victory no larger than 2-0 for the Blues.
Brighton & Hove Albion Two-Way (+100; 0.75u); Brighton & Hove Albion Three-Way (+190; 0.25u)
Here’s another game where I’m splitting my unit up into three-quarter and one-quarter unit wagers. Brighton is severely undervalued in this match against a suddenly hot Arsenal squad. I think recency bias and public perception play a part in the value we’re getting on Brighton.
The Seagulls might not be a household team to the average Premier League fan, but they’re in sixth place right now – this team is no joke. Plus, they’ll be the home side in this match. But Arsenal has caught fire, and the bookmakers know Arsenal has a huge following who loves to bet on their team. I think this is the game where the Gunners come back to earth, because this is a bad matchup with a really disciplined Brighton team who commit the seventh-fewest fouls per game.
Arsenal didn’t score a single goal through the first three matches, but now they’ve scored five over the last three. Let’s take a look at their competition. The Gunners scored just once on a Norwich City team who’ve still yet to secure a point this season, once against a Burnley team who would be relegated if the season ended today, and three times against Tottenham who’ve now allowed three goals in three of their last four matches. Arsenal isn’t exactly beating the toughest the league has to offer, and now they’ll face a more difficult test on the road.
Brighton has been great defensively and have only allowed five goals in six games this year. They’re capable of slowing down this run Arsenal is on; they rank 10th in expected goals allowed, which is three spots better than Tottenham, six better than Burnley, and 10 better than Norwich. The Seagulls have also defended their home turf, winning two of the three matches at Falmer Stadium this year. This year, Arsenal has won just one of their road matches, getting shut out in both losses away from home.
This is a spot where I view Arsenal as overrated and overvalued in the market, and I think the wrong team is favored in this match. At +190 on the three-way line, Brighton’s implied odds to escape with three points is just 34.5%. However, my model gives them a 40.1% chance to win, FiveThirtyEight gives them a 37.0% chance, and Kick Form has Brighton listed at 44.0%. Each projection shows clear value on the Seagulls, so grab these prices before they disappear.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.