Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchday 9 (2021)
We’re almost one-quarter of the way through the Premier League season, and aside from a surprise here and there, the league table has shaken out almost exactly as we expected.
Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City sit in their usual positions atop the standings; Manchester United and Tottenham lurk closely behind. Brighton & Hove Albion and West Ham United have been pleasant surprises as they round out the top third of the table, but unfortunately for the teams at the bottom, the outlook looks bleak – already.
Burnley, Newcastle United, and Norwich City sit in the relegation zone, and sure things can change – they’re essentially a win and a Leeds United loss from climbing out of danger, but it’s Matchday 9 none of those three teams have secured a win yet.
Our best bets are coming off a strong week last weekend, notching two wins in two tries, including a plus-money winner in the Chelsea vs. Brentford match by the skin of our teeth. So here’s to collecting another two-plus unit at the window this weekend; these are my best bets for Matchday 9.
Brentford / Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
Our first over of the year, and it’s on a heavily mispriced line. Leicester City unders have been nearly automatic the last two seasons. In 2019-20, the Foxes allowed just 41 goals in 38 games – fifth-best in the Premier League – and last year, they allowed only 50. This year has been vastly different as Leicester has transformed into more of an attacking side. Has it worked? Not exactly; the Foxes sit 11th in the league and eight points out of first place, but it’s been a great recipe for overs.
Nothing Leicester City has done on the attack this year has been a fluke. Their expected goal differential is +0.2, the lowest by far in the Premier League. This is because, when they’re expected to score, they do. And none of their goals are the result of luck. They play very true to their underlying metrics, so we know exactly what we’re getting here. The same is true of their defending. Their expected goals against differential is just -1.2 – the third-lowest in the league.
Overs have also been hitting at a rapid rate, regardless if the Foxes are home or away. Their last four matches and five of their last six have gone over the total, and those games are averaging 3.5 total goals. This team can score and quickly.
They’ll now travel to a Brentford team who are coming off getting blanked – a team total bet we cashed last week – but that was against the best defensive team in the Premier League. Leicester is far from that.
Brentford hit two posts last Saturday and tallied an expected goal mark of 1.5 against Chelsea, yet were held off the scoresheet. Casual bettors will look at the score and assume the Bees cannot put the ball in the net, but their recent game logs tell a far different story. Before last week’s clash with the Blues, Brentford had played two straight games that landed over and three straight where they scored two or more goals. They’ll also be the home team in this one, and it always helps to have the crowd at your back if you’re a team trying to overcome a brutal outcome the week prior.
I wouldn’t advise betting this at anything lower than -110 because these are two teams in the middle of the Premier League pack, after all, but currently, there’s excellent value on this number at even money.
Chelsea To Win To Nil (-140)
We’re laying a bit of juice here; in fact, it’s the heaviest favorite we’ve played thus far. But it’s worth it. We’re 3-1 on Chelsea totals this year, and our only loss came when the Blues decided to send a message and bury the third goal in extra time against Tottenham. I’ve had a solid read on this team all year, so why stop now? They’re the top team in the league with 19 points and are by far the best defensively and in goal, and now they’ll battle the last-place team in the table.
I won’t bore you with too many metrics and stats because this is a pretty simple handicap, and I don’t want to overcomplicate it. However, Norwich City will be the road team in this one, visiting Stamford Bridge which tends to be a house of horrors for opposing teams – especially bad ones. They’ve scored just two goals all year, they’ve allowed 16, and they’ve yet to win a match.
On the other hand, Chelsea has yet to lose at home and has captured 10 of a possible 12 points at the Bridge. They’re averaging two goals per game – and they’ve played a relatively impressive schedule already, too, so they’re not just beating up on the bottom of the table. They’ve only allowed three goals all year as well. Just three! And two of them were on penalty kicks. I can’t possibly imagine the worst team in the Premier League coming onto Chelsea’s turf and becoming just the second team to score a goal in open play against the Blues all year.
To win this bet, not only does Chelsea need to keep Norwich off the score sheet, they need to win the game as well. That shouldn’t be an issue. We’ve already touched on their ability to score, overall record, record at home, and their vast talent advantage. But they’re also motivated. Every point matters, especially at the top of the table when you’re battling against other massive clubs like Liverpool and Manchester City, not only for a Champions League spot but also for the league crown. Matches against poor teams are ones that Chelsea knows need to end with the full three points – they cannot leave any points on the table.
The Blues may send out a few of their reserves, seeing as they were a little banged up in their Champions League match on Wednesday, but not to worry. This is a deep team with talent all over the bench, many of whom play regularly throughout the year. This line will move fast, and yes, it’s a very public bet, but it’s also the right bet. So play it down to -155.
Sign up at BetMGM and get a Deposit Match up to $500 >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.