Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 14 (2021)
A little midweek Premier League action never hurt anyone. Thanks to so many international breaks already this season, the league squeezed Matchweek 14 into a Tuesday-Thursday window this week, giving us even more high-quality soccer to bet on.
The top of the table got a bit tighter after Matchweek 13. Chelsea drew a struggling Manchester United team at home, a result the Blues and their fans can’t be pleased with. That draw, together with a blowout win by Liverpool 4-0 over Southampton and a tight 2-1 victory by Manchester City over West Ham, shrunk Chelsea’s first place lead to just a single point and pulled the top three teams even closer. Just two points now separate them as the cream begins to rise to the top of the standings.
After a dreadful start to the year that had them in the relegation zone and goalless after three weeks, Arsenal has pulled into a fourth place tie after winning their fourth of the last five matches. The bottom three teams of the table remain unchanged, although Norwich City earned a point in their third straight game, sliding them up from 19th to 18th, just two points from safety.
Midweek matches can be tricky as some teams look to mix-and-match their regulars with more games coming up in just a few days. Here are my two favorite bets for the 14th week of the Premier League season.
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Wolverhampton Wanderers Three-Way Line (+100)
One of my rules of betting Premier League soccer is to try and avoid taking any teams below even-money on the three-way line. This is because there’s not enough value on a below even-money bet if a draw settles as a loss. So, this is the lowest I would go on Wolverhampton; however, I’m surprised they’re listed at even money given how poor Burnley is overall.
The Clarets are 19th in the Premier League table at the time of writing; they’ve got just a single win on the season, and while they’ve earned a point in the last four matches, only one has come against a quality team in Chelsea. They’ll now take to the road where three of their five losses on the season have come, and they’ll battle sixth-place Wolves. Burnley has struggled mightily against teams in the top half of the table, securing just one point in five matches against teams ranked first to 10th.
Burnley has also found recent success because they’ve developed ways to score against some poor defensive teams. Seven of their 14 goals on the year have come in the last three matches, meaning they scored just seven in the previous nine when the competition was much stiffer. Wolves are third-best in goals allowed, having given up just 12 on the year. The Clarets won’t have much by way of chances in this one.
And while Wolverhampton has only scored 12 goals themselves, Burley is a very leaky defensive team. They’ve allowed 20 goals in 12 matches and have pitched just a single clean sheet on the year. Three of the last five games have seen the Clarets allow multiple goals as well, so Wolves can employ more of an attacking style than they’ve been in recent weeks.
As the home side, I like Wolverhampton to win this one by a goal. I wouldn’t play it any lower than even money. Even at -105, it’s a pass for me.
Manchester United / Arsenal Under 2.5 (+115)
Manchester United broke out of their dreadful slump in Matchweek 13 – sort of. They didn’t beat Chelsea, but they earned a quality draw at Stamford Bridge after losing five of their previous seven matches. However, the issue of lack of scoring wasn’t fixed, as they only scored a single tally, making it four of the last five games they’ve been held to one or zero goals.
Not only are the Red Devils not scoring, but they’re also doing nothing in terms of expected goals. In two of their last three games, they’ve been held under a single expected goal. They’ve only racked up an expected goal total of two or more twice in 13 matches this season, tied for the lowest of any team in the top 10 of the standings. And even when they do have an offensive explosion on the scoresheet, the metrics point to luck being the main factor.
Against Leeds in the opening match, the Red Devils scored five times; their expected output was just 1.2 goals. Against Newcastle, they scored four times but posted an expected goals of 2.1. And against Spurs, they found the back of the net three times but somehow only managed 1.2 expected goals. Is Arsenal the best defense in the Premier League? Of course not, but they’re red-hot in terms of keeping the ball out of their net recently. And with Manchester United as the home team, I expected Arsenal to play much tighter defensively instead of a wide-open style that leaves them vulnerable to a counterattack.
The Gunners have posted clean sheets in three of the last four matches, and aside from a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, they’ve given up just a single goal in their last four wins. It’s all starting to come together after a dreadful start for Arsenal, and this is a rivalry. Both teams will be playing extremely hard, and with this game sandwiched between two others on book-ended weekends, don’t be surprised if the extra effort comes on defense instead of the attack.
I would play this one down to +110 and keep an eye on the lineups. If both teams decide to rest a few of their key players because of the short rest, look at the first half under market as well. Both teams may score, but I don’t expect this one to end any higher than a 1-1 draw between two teams who should be playing a cautious style, given their place in the table.
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