Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 18 (2021)

The Premier League never sleeps. With the January transfer window right around the corner, clubs are working feverishly on compiling wish lists and trying to lock up their top players before the window opens to ensure rival organizations won’t poach them.

It’s a tumultuous time in international soccer and perhaps the most hectic in the Premier League. After cramming three match weeks into a 10-day window at the end of November and into early December, the league has done it again mid-way through the final month of the year. Most teams will be playing their third match in just about a week. Fun for fans and bettors, but seemingly exhausting for the players.

There are some very exploitable lines on the market for Matchweek 18, so let’s dive into my three favorite wagers.

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Arsenal Three-Way Line (+125)

Arsenal has been an interesting team to follow this year. They dropped each of their first three matches of the year and have only lost three of the subsequent fourteen since. What they’ve done to climb into tournament contention is pummel inferior teams while still not finding a way to beat the class of the Premier League. Leeds United is a team that falls into the “pummel” category, not the “class” category. Arsenal should have their way in a high-scoring affair here.

The gunners have lost to Brentford, Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Everton. Everton is the only blip on the radar; all five of their other losses are to top 10 teams, and four of them are to teams in the top five. Arsenal had just three combined goals in those six losses, and two came in one game against Manchester United. Being kept off the score sheet won’t be an issue in this one – Leeds has already allowed 25 goals on the year, the sixth-most in the league.

Arsenal has also only been kept out of the net once in the last nine matches and averages 1.78 goals per game over that span. Extrapolating that over the entire season would make the Gunners the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. Leeds won’t be able to go goal-for-goal with Arsenal.

Leeds has fallen into a defensive pit lately; they’ve allowed five goals in their last two games, and they’ve been getting torched by the top teams all year. Arsenal will be no different. The Whites allowed five goals to Manchester United, three to Liverpool, two to West Ham, two to Tottenham, and three to Chelsea; they also lost all five of those matches. There are many similarities here, and the skill of Arsenal should be able to take over and jump out to an early lead they won’t relinquish. I wouldn’t play this much lower than the current price, and +120 is my limit.

Liverpool / Tottenham Both Teams to Score: No (+130; 0.75u)

I’ve got three-quarters of a unit on only one of these two teams to score, and since I feel strongly that Tottenham will be the team kept off the score sheet, I have another quarter-unit bet to follow. This is a very simple handicap – Liverpool doesn’t give up many goals, and Tottenham doesn’t score many. Their recent run of offensive output has been a mirage and the result of weak opponents. We’re selling high on Spurs.

Liverpool has only allowed 12 goals all season and just one in the last five games. They’ve kept ten clean sheets in 16 matches, and Tottenham doesn’t have the structure to get behind this defensive line and into the back of the net. They’ve scored just 16 goals on the year – sixth-lowest in the league, and it’s not a result of bad luck. Their expected goal output is just 17.1, so over 16 weeks, they’ve scored just a single goal below what the metrics dictate. That’s the third-lowest margin in the league.

Lately, Spurs have exploded with seven goals and three wins, 43.8% of their season total in terms of goals for just three games. Who’ve they done it against? Fifteenth place Leeds United, 10th place Brentford, and 20th place Norwich City.

Enter second place, Liverpool. This isn’t a team Tottenham is simply going to overpower due to a skill mismatch. They’ll have to generate offensive chances, and that’s not something they do against top teams. Chelsea, West Ham, and Manchester United all blanked Spurs, and Manchester City and Arsenal held them to a single goal. Liverpool is within one point of first place, so this won’t be a game they take lightly. Every game is a must-win for the Reds, so I don’t expect much breathing room for the attacking Tottenham players.

Liverpool To Win To Nil (+200; 0.25u)

As I explained above, I don’t expect Tottenham to score, and since every game is a must-win for Liverpool as they try to hunt down first place, I expect another multi-goal output and, thus, a multi-goal victory. This is just a quarter-unit bet, but one with big payout potential.

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