Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 19 (2021)

We may not celebrate it here in the states, but Boxing Day is a day Premier League fans look forward to all year across the pond. The 2021 version of Boxing Day, the day after Christmas for those unfamiliar, will play host to nine Premier League games, giving us a day full of soccer and a day full of betting.

It’s not all great news, though. On top of the league having many players out due to COVID complications, the matchups on Sunday aren’t looking overly competitive on paper. But that’s why we play the games, right?

Let’s add a couple of wins to the holiday season, shall we? Here are my two best bets for Matchweek 19, each of the “both teams to score” variety.

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Arsenal / Norwich City Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100)

In a battle of clubs going in two completely different directions with completely different aspirations, we’re banking on them both to bury one in the back of the net. Oddly enough, after three weeks, these were the two worst teams in the Premier League and the only two teams who hadn’t scored. Now, nearly four months and 15 matches later, Arsenal sits in the final Champion League qualifier spot in fourth place, while Norwich remains in the basement of the table.

Let’s start with Arsenal and the many reasons why I think they’ll have no problem finding a goal. For starters, they’re white-hot – winners of three in a row while scoring nine goals in those three games. Most recently, the Gunners rolled over Leeds United with four goals as the road team. Arsenal hasn’t been kept off the score sheet since Week 12, and have only been shut out twice since their slow start in the first three games of the year. Their recent hot streak is also not a fluke; they’ve tallied 13.1 expected goals since their last shut out six games ago with 14 actual goals to show for it.

The Gunners are also about to face the third-worst defensive team in the league, ironically the team that helped them break their cold streak to start the season. Norwich has allowed 34 goals in 17 matches, an even two goals per game. The Canaries haven’t kept a clean sheet in the last four games and have only kept three all season. Those three shutouts came against Wolves (19th in goals), Brighton (18th), and Burnley (17th). Arsenal ranks sixth – they won’t be kept at bay.

Obviously the worry here is Norwich’s half of this bet – and rightfully so. But at even money, this is a bet worth taking given the Canaries motivation. Sure, they’re dead-last in the standings, but they do not want to get relegated yet again. They want to stay in the Premier League, and they know they’ve got to score to keep up. A win coupled with either a loss or draw from Burnley and Newcastle would vault Norwich into a theoretical tie for 17th place in the standings – AKA safety from relegation… for now.

I also think we’re getting solid odds on this bet because Norwich hasn’t scored in three games, but they’ve played three tough defensive teams and were without their captain in their last match. In their scoreless stretch, they’ve totaled three expected goals or a goal per game on average, but nothing has found the back of the net. That’s bad luck, and I expect the luck to turn after having a two-week break to rest up. My limit on this bet is -105.

Tottenham / Crystal Palace: Both Teams to Score: No (+100)

Different teams, same bet type, same odds as above. This time, we’re taking the “no” side and betting that either Spurs or Palace are shut out.

Last time these teams played all the way back in Week 4, this bet cashed at plus-money as Crystal Palace blanked Tottenham at home 3-0. This is a fierce local rivalry, and with so much revenge on Spurs’ minds, I’m fully expecting Palace to be ready for a physical battle and to defend their own end. Clearly, they know how to keep Spurs off the scoresheet, but I actually think the way we’re going to cash this bet is by Tottenham shutting out Crystal Palace at home.

On the Tottenham side, not only are they one of the more feeble offensive sides in the league – just 18 goals in 15 games – they’re one of the best defensive teams. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the league, and are fourth-best in terms of expected goals allowed. Spurs have also posted clean sheets in two of the last three matches and three of the last five.

Playing at home of late has caused Tottenham to tighten up defensively, a great sign for our bet. Excluding a 2-2 draw against Liverpool, because the Reds put up multiple goals on everyone, Spurs has allowed just one goal in their last three home matches combined. Now they’ll face a Crystal Palace team who’ve struggled away from home recently, getting blanked in each of their last two road matches. They also haven’t played away from home since December 5th, so it’s going to take time to adjust to playing in front of an unfriendly crowd, especially a crowd that supports one of your biggest rivals.

The weather could be a factor in this one as well, and both Nathan Ferguson and James McArthur will miss this match for the Eagles. Those are two big losses for Palace, but great news for our bet. Play this one down to -105 as well.

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