Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 20 (2021)

Don’t blink; you might miss Matchweek 20. Another slate of mid-week games in the Premier League is set to kick off on Tuesday, and for some teams, it’ll be just two days after their last match on Sunday. English football is going full steam ahead, despite some postponements mixed in.

Boxing Day matches lived up to the hype; holy goals! Every match had at least one team score multiple goals, six teams scored at least three goals, Arsenal scored five times, and Manchester City scored six times. The 4.67 goals per game in Week 19 were almost two full goals higher than the average for the Premier League season.

Will we see a similar explosion of goals in Week 20, or will the short rest and tired legs cause teams to play more conservatively and out of sorts? Let’s hope it’s the latter, at least for one of our best bets.

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Chelsea / Brighton Under 2.5 (-115)

Chelsea was comfortably in first place for nearly a month, but a recent stumble combined with surges from Manchester City and Liverpool have left the Blues in third place, six points off the lead. It’s no coincidence that Chelsea’s recent slide coincides with a rash of injuries and positive COVID tests, but the uptick in goals allowed has raised concerns. I think Thomas Tuchel and company put that to a stop this week, and even with a half-filled lineup, I see the Blues getting back to their stifling defensive form.

Through their first 10 games, Chelsea allowed just three total goals, with only one coming in open play. Seven clean sheets were posted in that time span as well. The Blues have let in 10 goals in the subsequent nine matches and have only posted two clean sheets. It’s a major uptick in goals allowed, yes, but there are two reasons why I think the market is overreacting here.

The first reason is basically the “best player / best team” theory. For readers who also follow the NBA, let’s use Stephen Curry as an example. If Curry shoots 3-for-9 from three, most people will say, “wow, he had an off night,” but if your average NBA player shot the same percentage, nobody would bat an eye. It’s because everyone is used to Curry hitting at least 40% of his shots. That’s the case here; everyone is used to Chelsea posting clean sheets, so the Blues allowing essentially one goal per match over the last two months has raised eyebrows. We can still cash this bet if Chelsea allows a goal. I don’t think they will, but we can still win the bet.

The second reason is the underlying metrics – the expected goals allowed metric to be exact. If you can believe it, Chelsea allowed 1.1 expected goals per game in the first 10 when they allowed just three actual goals. In their next nine games where they’ve allowed 10 actual goals, they’ve posted an improved 0.8 expected goals per game. The ball just isn’t bouncing their way, but I don’t see much bad luck on the horizon against a Brighton side who struggles to score and who will struggle to score in a hostile environment on the road.

Brighton may be ninth in the table, but they’re 17th in goals scored. They notched their first multi-goal output since October 30th on Sunday and have been shut out in six of their 17 matches thus far. It’s also been a struggle away from the AMEX, and Stamford Bridge is no walk in the park. In their last three away matches, Brighton has just two goals, and those came against Aston Villa, West Ham, and Southampton.

Every road crowd is hostile, but few get after it more than the Chelsea faithful. I’d be surprised if Brighton gets on the board in this one, and even if they do, a 1-1 final is the highest final score I envision. Brighton only allows a single goal per game, the fifth-fewest in the league, and Chelsea’s big guns are set to miss yet another match. Play this under down to -125.

West Ham United Three-Way Line (+115)

I’m buying low on the Hammers after a disappointing showing on Sunday and selling high on a Watford team who are being given too much credit in the market for being rested. They haven’t played in three weeks, and there will be some rust to knock off.

West Ham squandered a massive opportunity in Week 19 to stay within striking distance of a Champions League berth. It’s still entirely possible, but the likelihood is fading by the day. They can’t afford to take a breather because one more slip-up could not only end their Champions League dreams but could push them out of a Europa spot as well. The Hammers will be extremely motivated to avenge their 3-2 loss to Southampton because that was a match that was perfectly positioned for them to right the ship. The schedule softens a bit here for West Ham, so they’ll be firing on all cylinders against a really weak Watford team, especially in terms of defending their half.

Watford’s poor backline is exactly why I think West Ham is such a tough matchup. West Ham scores like crazy; they’re fifth in the league in goals and one of just six to put 30 across the line already this season. The teams in front of them are the big boys of the Premier League, too; being in the same conversation as Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal in terms of scoring is no small feat. Watford has struggled mightily when it comes to preventing goals. They’ve allowed the fifth-most in the league, are one of just five teams to give up 30 goals already and the only team to do so without playing more than 16 games, and are one of just four teams to allow over 30 expected goals already. Their backline is a mess, and the downhill, attacking style of West Ham – which, as I mentioned earlier, I expect to be cranked up to a whole new level given their motivation to keep pace atop the table – is going to make it tough for Watford to stay afloat.

As stated in the open, Watford is “rested.” There’s a difference between being rested and what Watford is currently experiencing. Their last Premier League game due to COVID cancellations was December 10th – nearly three weeks ago. There will be plenty of rust to knock off early, and they may not have time to do so with how quickly the Hammers can score. Play West Ham down to +105 on the three-way.

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