Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 21 (2022)

Happy New Year, Premier League fans. For some of our favorite teams, a new year and a fresh start is exactly what’s needed – but “fresh” won’t exactly be a theme this weekend during Matchweek 21.

For the third time in three weeks, the Premier League will be cramming a slate of games in the middle of the week to make up for lost time due to international breaks and COVID/weather postponements. This weekend’s match will be the third in just eight days and the eleventh in just over a month for some clubs. It’s been a demanding stretch, and it’s caused quite the shake-up in the standings.

There are some huge games on tap on New Year’s weekend as well, as the top four teams will all be playing each other. Manchester City will battle Arsenal, and Liverpool will take on Chelsea – two games surely to have a massive impact on the table moving forward. With so many variables and lineup questions, it’s difficult to pick sides this weekend, so I’m pivoting to totals. Given the tread on the tires for some of these teams, I expect a dip in scoring, so I’m playing two unders in Week 21.

Get a Risk-Free first bet up to $500 at BetMGM >>

Brentford / Aston Villa Under 2.5 (-120)

It’s not often I lay -120 on a Premier League bet, but I like this one to stay under the total by at least a half-goal, maybe more.

Aston Villa may not be the best defensive team in the Premier League – they’ve allowed 28 goals on the year, which is eighth-most, but they’ve changed up their style drastically in games following a match where they allowed multiple goals, as well as in road games. Over the last four games away from home, Villa has allowed just two goals and posted two clean sheets in the process. It’s visible to the eye test – this team likes to pack it in and not expose themselves on the back end when they’re in a hostile environment. No club will ever admit to “playing for a draw,” but it almost seems like Aston Villa is content with a road point each time.

And as for the point about adjusting well after a poor defensive showing. Villa has allowed multiple goals eight times this season, including a three-goal allowance to Chelsea last time out. They’ve held their subsequent opponent off the scoresheet twice in the previous seven and to just a single goal twice more. In all four of those matches, their expected goals allowed total was under zero as well, so there was no luck involved – it was tactical and strong defending.

They should have no issue keeping Brentford off the scoresheet, either. Brentford has allowed just 24 goals on the year, so they’ve been stingy themselves, but they’ve only scored 21 in 17 games, and it’s been a real problem for the Bees all season. Of late, the problem has been amplified as Brentford has been clean sheeted in two of their last four matches. They’ll also be facing an incredibly quick turnaround after playing Manchester City on Wednesday, so expect a makeshift lineup that may take time to sync on the attack.

The last two times these teams faced off back in Week 3, they played to a 1-1 draw, and the under cashed. I expect a similar, deliberate style of play in this one and would play this under down to -130.

Watford / Tottenham Under 2.5 (+105)

Tottenham’s recent stretch of solid offensive play is inflating this total, but what’s going unnoticed is how strong they’ve been defending their half. They’ll battle a Watford team who we faded in Matchweek 20 with much success, so let’s do it again.

Watford’s December 28th clash with West Ham was their first Premier League match since December 10th, a nearly three-week layoff as three matches were postponed in between. The rust showed, too. Watford fell 4-1 to a shorthanded West Ham team who was coming off a crushing loss to Southampton, as the Hornets looked completely out of sorts from start to finish. This team has only scored 22 goals on the year, which placed them firmly in the league’s bottom half, and they haven’t topped a single goal in a match since Thanksgiving. They’ve been clean sheeted in 41.2% of their games so far this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another one this weekend against a Tottenham team who’ve found their stride defensively.

Spurs started the year on a magical defensive run – shutting out Manchester City, Wolves, and this same Watford club in their first three matches. But then the wheels fell off, and Spurs allowed three goals to each of their next three opponents and went seven in a row without a shutout. However since the calendar flipped to November, the Tottenham of early in the season has been back with four clean sheets and just four total goals allowed in the last seven matches.

Watford’s inept offense isn’t going to solve this back end of Tottenham, a team who is riding high with a seven-match point streak. Spurs have held their last two opponents to a combined 0.6 expected goals, and with so much fatigue from so many matches, I expect them to hunker down on defense as the road team. Tottenham has also been terrific on offense of late, but most of their damage has come at home. On the road, I expect them to take fewer chances. Spurs have scored 22 goals on the year, but only six have come away from home.

The first time these teams battled, Tottenham won a low-scoring 1-0 affair. Look for more of the same here, and play this under down to -105.

PointsBet Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.