Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 31 (2022)
Welcome back to the pitch, Premier League fans!
After a week off, the greatest league in the world is set to embark on the home stretch. Eight more weeks of games to crown a champion. Hereâs how the landscape looks.
Manchester City, who once owned a commanding nine point lead atop the table, has all but squandered it thanks to a recent skid. Theyâre just a point up on second place Liverpool. City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal sit in Champions League seats; Tottenham currently holds the automatic Europa bid, but Manchester United, West Ham, and Wolverhampton are within striking distance.
Down at the bottom of the table, Norwich City seems all but certain to head back down to the second division. The Canaries have just 17 points and are six points below the relegation line. Watford and Burnley are the two other teams currently in danger of being relegated, but Everton and Leeds United arenât far enough ahead to feel comfortable yet.
Now that the table has been set, hereâs who I like this weekend across the pond.
Tottenham Hotspur / Newcastle United
Iâm not sure why this line is posted at plus money, but if youâre in agreement, I would jump on it quickly because I donât anticipate the value being available for long.
Newcastle United is a scary team to bet unders on, but if we take a deeper look at how theyâve been playing of late, youâll get a lot more comfortable. Theyâve allowed 49 goals this season, fourth-most in the league, but the bulk of those outbursts came earlier in the year. Of late, theyâve really been a stout defensive team.
Newcastle hasnât allowed more than one goal against in their last 11 matches. Prior to those 11, it was ugly as the Magpies allowed three or more goals eight times. And I think thatâs whatâs inflating this line. Whatâs more â Newcastle has posted three shutouts in their last 11 matches as well, and theyâve played some high-scoring teams in that span â they havenât just been suffocating the weaker teams in the league.
The Magpies held Chelsea, West Ham, and Manchester United to a single goal while blanking Aston Villa and Leeds who may not be great teams, but are certainly teams who can score. They also know theyâre not equipped to out-score Tottenham â theyâve got just 32 goals on the year â so their strategy in this match will be to play airtight defense and hope for a point to stay afloat from the relegation zone.
As far as Tottenham is concerned, I donât expect them to give up much of anything in this match, especially at home. There are three clubs in the Premier League that give up absolutely nothing â Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool â and itâs unfair to compare anyone to those teams. But among the 17 other clubs, Tottenham has allowed the third-fewest goals in the league and theyâll battle a club whoâs scored the seventh-fewest.
Spurs have also been incredibly strong defensively lately, posting three clean sheets in their last five matches and aside from one poor showing against Manchester United, Tottenham has allowed a goal or fewer in five of the last six. Play this one down to even money.
The Pick: Under 2.5 (+105; DraftKings)
Crystal Palace / Arsenal
For those whoâve followed this series through the first 30 weeks, youâll recognize this wager. A both teams to score bet on a Monday game. For those a bit unfamiliar, Monday night Premier League matches are just like Sunday Night or Monday Night Football here in the US. Itâs a standalone match in primetime on national television. The teams are incredibly fired up to play, and thereâs extra motivation for a strong showing. And it usually leads to offense.
Arsenal is in a dogfight for that final Champions League berth, and draws arenât going to cut it. They need to score goals, and theyâve been doing just that all season. Aside from their first three matches when they were puzzlingly blanked in all of them, the Gunners have been held off the score sheet just four times since. Theyâre averaging 2.0 goals per game in their last 13 as well, so their hot streak is a long and sustained one.
The Gunners also havenât been minding the defensive end of the pitch during this streak. Theyâve allowed multiple goals in two of their last four matches, and have just two clean sheets over their last six. Theyâre about to face a Crystal Palace team who may not be a strong one, but is a hungry one and one who knows how to score. Especially in front of their home fans in primetime.
Despite being in the bottom half of the standings, Crystal Palace is in the top half of the goal scoring metrics. Theyâve scored 39 times in 29 games, so theyâre averaging well over a goal per match, and lately the offense has carried them. Palace was blanked by Manchester City in a draw in their last match, but prior, they put home seven goals in just three matches including a four-goal outburst against Watford.
I donât expect this line to move much, but I wouldnât play it any lower than this if the odds happen to shift.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-115; DraftKings)
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.