Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 31 (2022)

Welcome back to the pitch, Premier League fans!

After a week off, the greatest league in the world is set to embark on the home stretch. Eight more weeks of games to crown a champion. Here’s how the landscape looks.

Manchester City, who once owned a commanding nine point lead atop the table, has all but squandered it thanks to a recent skid. They’re just a point up on second place Liverpool. City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal sit in Champions League seats; Tottenham currently holds the automatic Europa bid, but Manchester United, West Ham, and Wolverhampton are within striking distance.

Down at the bottom of the table, Norwich City seems all but certain to head back down to the second division. The Canaries have just 17 points and are six points below the relegation line. Watford and Burnley are the two other teams currently in danger of being relegated, but Everton and Leeds United aren’t far enough ahead to feel comfortable yet.

Now that the table has been set, here’s who I like this weekend across the pond.

Tottenham Hotspur / Newcastle United

I’m not sure why this line is posted at plus money, but if you’re in agreement, I would jump on it quickly because I don’t anticipate the value being available for long.

Newcastle United is a scary team to bet unders on, but if we take a deeper look at how they’ve been playing of late, you’ll get a lot more comfortable. They’ve allowed 49 goals this season, fourth-most in the league, but the bulk of those outbursts came earlier in the year. Of late, they’ve really been a stout defensive team.

Newcastle hasn’t allowed more than one goal against in their last 11 matches. Prior to those 11, it was ugly as the Magpies allowed three or more goals eight times. And I think that’s what’s inflating this line. What’s more – Newcastle has posted three shutouts in their last 11 matches as well, and they’ve played some high-scoring teams in that span – they haven’t just been suffocating the weaker teams in the league.

The Magpies held Chelsea, West Ham, and Manchester United to a single goal while blanking Aston Villa and Leeds who may not be great teams, but are certainly teams who can score. They also know they’re not equipped to out-score Tottenham – they’ve got just 32 goals on the year – so their strategy in this match will be to play airtight defense and hope for a point to stay afloat from the relegation zone.

As far as Tottenham is concerned, I don’t expect them to give up much of anything in this match, especially at home. There are three clubs in the Premier League that give up absolutely nothing – Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool – and it’s unfair to compare anyone to those teams. But among the 17 other clubs, Tottenham has allowed the third-fewest goals in the league and they’ll battle a club who’s scored the seventh-fewest.

Spurs have also been incredibly strong defensively lately, posting three clean sheets in their last five matches and aside from one poor showing against Manchester United, Tottenham has allowed a goal or fewer in five of the last six. Play this one down to even money.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (+105; DraftKings)

Crystal Palace / Arsenal

For those who’ve followed this series through the first 30 weeks, you’ll recognize this wager. A both teams to score bet on a Monday game. For those a bit unfamiliar, Monday night Premier League matches are just like Sunday Night or Monday Night Football here in the US. It’s a standalone match in primetime on national television. The teams are incredibly fired up to play, and there’s extra motivation for a strong showing. And it usually leads to offense.

Arsenal is in a dogfight for that final Champions League berth, and draws aren’t going to cut it. They need to score goals, and they’ve been doing just that all season. Aside from their first three matches when they were puzzlingly blanked in all of them, the Gunners have been held off the score sheet just four times since. They’re averaging 2.0 goals per game in their last 13 as well, so their hot streak is a long and sustained one.

The Gunners also haven’t been minding the defensive end of the pitch during this streak. They’ve allowed multiple goals in two of their last four matches, and have just two clean sheets over their last six. They’re about to face a Crystal Palace team who may not be a strong one, but is a hungry one and one who knows how to score. Especially in front of their home fans in primetime.

Despite being in the bottom half of the standings, Crystal Palace is in the top half of the goal scoring metrics. They’ve scored 39 times in 29 games, so they’re averaging well over a goal per match, and lately the offense has carried them. Palace was blanked by Manchester City in a draw in their last match, but prior, they put home seven goals in just three matches including a four-goal outburst against Watford.

I don’t expect this line to move much, but I wouldn’t play it any lower than this if the odds happen to shift.

The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-115; DraftKings)

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.