Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 34 (2022)
There has officially been an unseating at the top of the Premier League standings.
After a 4-0 defeat of Manchester United on Tuesday, Liverpool leaped over Manchester City in the table to take possession of first place. But keep in mind, they have a game in hand on City, so thereâs still a distinct possibility of more flip-flopping between first and second place.
In this weekâs edition of best bets, weâll be focusing much lower on the table than the top teams because there is a ton of value to be had in matches that the markets have seemingly neglected since they have no impact on the title race. Their loss is our gain; here are my two favorite wagers for Matchweek 34.
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Burnley / Wolverhampton: Both Teams to Score â No (-120; DraftKings)
Both Burnley and Wolves are two extremely low-event teams, and they both have a surprisingly strong defense given their place in the standings. This wager has three key pillars, starting with the aforementioned defending.
If you can believe it, the Wolves are one of just four teams this year to allow fewer than a goal per match. Theyâve let in just 28 goals in 32 games, grouping them with the top three teams in the league â Liverpool, Manchester City, and Chelsea â as the only teams to achieve that feat. And while Burnley is the 18th place team in the league, itâs by no fault of their backline. Itâs because they simply cannot score. Burnley is 10th in the league in goals allowed with just 45, making them no worse than average despite their low point total. Goals should be at a premium here, especially considering these two clubs have combined for fewer goals than three Premier League teams have scored on their own this season.
The second key to this bet is the motivation on the side of the Wolves. Theyâre in eighth place on the season, and a seventh-place finish would give them a chance to qualify for the Europa League. They sit just three points back on seventh-place West Ham who play Chelsea, so this is a golden opportunity for Wolverhampton to capture three points. What better way to do that than to hold the 18th-place team to zero goals?
And finally, there is surprisingly motivation on the Burnley side, despite being third from the bottom of the standings. Theyâre three points behind safety from relegation, and they know every point is critical. I donât expect this team to go all out and leave their back end exposed to a possible counterattack, and I expect Burnley to sit back and play for the 0-0 draw and the chance to earn a point.
Play the ânoâ side of this bet all the way down to -135.
Newcastle United / Norwich City Over 2.5 (-115; DraftKings)
This is a rare edition of best bets where none of our wagers are plus money, but this over is way too good to pass up. Weâre about to witness two of the worst defensive back lines the Premier League has to offer, and no matter how bereft of talent these two attacks are, itâll be difficult to combine for fewer than three goals.
Norwich City is again in the Premier League basement with just 21 points. Itâs tough to envision a path where they avoid relegation, and reality seems to have set in for the Canaries. But that doesnât mean theyâve given up. In fact, it seems to have made them play a much looser brand of soccer. Theyâve netted two goals in each of their last two games, one of which came against Manchester United, and the over has hit in six of their last nine. This unstructured brand of play hasnât just enhanced their scoring; itâs left them vulnerable to getting scored on â in bunches.
Norwich has allowed multiple goals in seven of the last nine contests, and in the only two contests where they didnât do so, their expected goals against were 2.0 or above. Theyâre getting gashed on the back end, and I expect that to continue at home against Newcastle.
As for Newcastle, they have absolutely nothing to play for. Theyâre safe from relegation; theyâre too far removed from any of the top seven slots. Theyâre just playing out the season, but theyâre also playing for their jobs. The offense dried up a bit for the Magpies but came back to life last week in a 2-1 win over another poor defensive club in Leicester City. I expect more of the free-flowing style we saw against the Foxes, considering Norwich City is just as easy to score on.
These teams have combined to allow 121 goals on the season, an average of 1.9 per game. Thereâs reason to expect these teams to reach that average this weekend, so play this over down to -125.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.