Top Premier League Betting Picks For Saturday, August 14 (2021)
Welcome back, soccer fans! It’s been a long, nearly three-month layoff from action in the greatest league in the world. But, fear not. We’ve got a loaded, three-day slate on opening weekend of Premier League football starting Friday with Arsenal against Brentford and concluding on Sunday when defending-champion Manchester City battles Tottenham Hotspur.
The books’ biggest liability in the futures market is Chelsea at +500 to win the title after their impressive run through the Champions League to lift the most coveted trophy in the sport. Many bettors expect the Blues to carry that momentum into Premier League play and capture yet another trophy for the club, their first Premier League title in five years. Manchester City is favored (-165) to win their second-consecutive title and fourth in five years, while Liverpool (+550) and Manchester United (+750) round out the four-horse race for the league title.
Norwich City, Watford, and Brentford earned promotion from the English Championship. They will compete in the Premier League in 2021-22, replacing Fulham, West Bromwich Albion, and Sheffield United – who were demoted after finishing at the bottom of last year’s table.
Match Week 1 of the Premier League year is historically one of the most profitable for sportsbooks, so I’ve avoided any traps with the first edition of my best bets article. Here are my two favorite plays for this upcoming Saturday.
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Watford / Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
Aston Villa was pretty true to form in 2020-21. The Lions netted 55 goals on the year and tallied 52.9 expected goals – the fourth-lowest differential in the league. Essentially, we know what to expect from this club. The underlying metrics don’t hint at an explosion of scoring, despite playing a team that competed in the lower division last season.
Villa must say goodbye to Jack Grealish, a key attacker from their 11th place finish last year, who left the club to sign a nine-figure contract with Manchester City. He’ll be tough to replace, especially early on, which will profoundly affect the Lions’ ability to create chances. Aston Villa also has a top goalkeeper in Emiliano Martinez. He was third in the Premier League last year in saves (142) and clean sheets (15) and led all goalkeepers in save percentage (78.6%). He’ll be a huge advantage in an opening game where chemistry may be lacking, especially on the road. He should be able to hold the fort against an inevitably outmanned Watford squad who didn’t excel at creating chances in their last go-around in England’s top competition – they averaged less than a goal per match (36 goals in 38 games).
Speaking of playing on the road, Aston Villa’s matches on home soil averaged 2.95 goals per game last season. However, their matches averaged just 2.37 goals per game on the road, which lands us below the 2.5 goal total in this one.
On to Watford; they spent 2020-21 in the Championship division, one league below the Premiership. Despite finishing second from the top, they weren’t a juggernaut on offense as many promoted squads seem to be in the year they earn promotion. The Hornets averaged just 1.39 goals per game last year, a shade fewer than Villa averaged a year ago but against much weaker competition. What really set Watford apart was the defending in their own end, which makes this under a strong play.
Watford predicates itself on defense and held opponents to just 30 total goals last year, just 0.65 per game. That mark was best in the Championship by a landslide, six full goals better than second-best Norwich City, and the Hornets’ 23 clean sheets were also best in the league. With the home crowd behind them, look for Watford to control the tempo, despite not having the same level of depth and talent as Aston Villa. Villa should be content to play the slow place Watford desires, picking their spots and looking to sneak home the lone goal of the afternoon.
The team totals also support this under. Villa’s team total of 1.5 is heavily juiced to the under (-150), and Watford’s team total of 1.5 is juiced even heavier (-220). Clearly, the books are expecting a 1-1 final at the most. I anticipate a 1-0 final in either direction and even if we get a late equalizer, we’re still a half goal under the total and holding a winning ticket. I would bet this under down to -125.
Norwich City Team Total Under 0.5 (+110)
In another fade of a newly promoted squad, I’m taking Liverpool to shut Norwich City out in the Canaries’ first match back in the Premier League since 2019-20.
To say Norwich struggled in their last go-around in the top league is an understatement; they finished dead-last with just 21 points – 13 points behind 19th-place Watford. The Canaries managed just 26 goals in 38 games, and now they’ll have to find a way to score against one of the five-best defensive teams in the Premier League from a year ago. To say that won’t be easy would be an understatement.
Norwich had a much easier time scoring in the Championship last season, but they didn’t face a single squad even close to Liverpool’s skill level. The Reds had the fourth-best goals allowed total last year (42) and the sixth-best expected goals allowed (45.3). They were also solid holding the weaker squads off the score sheet. In matches against teams who finished in the bottom half of the table, Liverpool tallied eight clean sheets – and that number wasn’t a fluke. In each of those eight matches, Liverpool’s expected goals against was under 1.0.
Promoted teams, like Norwich, have also struggled in recent years in their first match back in the Premier League. In the last four years, newly promoted teams have been shut out in six of the 12 Week 1 matches after promotion (50.0%). This +110 line tells us that the books give Norwich City an implied odds of 47.6% to stay off the score sheet, so we’ve got a 2.4% edge when considering recent history.
I don’t anticipate this line moving very much; betting a team to get shut out isn’t the most popular bet for casual and public bettors to wager on. However, I would bet this down to even money if the sharps and professional bettors take some of the value out of the current line of +110.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.