Top Sports Betting Takeaways From NFL Week 10 (2025)
The National Football League (NFL) heads into Week 11, and we’re rounding the corner and heading for Thanksgiving pretty soon. The good news in Week 10 is that we didn’t seem to lose any star players to major, season-ending type injuries. Football is a violent sport, and it happens. When it does, it’s a major bummer, and when we get a relatively injury-free week, we should all be thankful.
Each week, we’ll review some of the important facts that we learned from the previous week, while looking at some trends, stats and bad beats, with some facts, conjecture and a little bit of fun along the way.
Let’s get started with our top sports betting takeaways from NFL Week 10.
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NFL Week 10 Sports Betting Takeaways
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
For the Record
In Week 10, we had four teams on a bye. Favorites went 10-4 straight up (SU), while favorites ended up 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in this 14 contests. So far through 149 games in the regular season across 10 weekends, favorites are 103-45-1 (69.6%) straight up, holding right around the 70% mark for a second consecutive week. Through 10 weeks, favorites are 83-65-1 (56.1%).
Home teams managed just an 8-6 SU mark in Week 10, and we had some of the largest upsets of the season. The Miami Dolphins topped the Buffalo Bills 30-13 (+8, Moneyline +350) in a game that was surprisingly one-sided, but not the way we expected. The New Orleans Saints (+5.5, Moneyline +210) also stunned the Carolina Panthers 17-7 in Charlotte. Road teams ended up 8-5-1 ATS in 14 games in Week 10, and home and road teams are now even at 73-73-3 ATS (50.0%) so far this season.
In divisional games, the Denver Broncos won 10-7 on Thursday night, but the underdog Las Vegas Raiders covered on the road. The Dolphins belted the Bills as home ‘dogs, while the Texans covered as slight favorites (-1) at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 36-29, despite backup QB Davis Mills starting. The Saints upset the Panthers as road underdogs, and the Rams pelted the 49ers 42-26 as 6-point favorites while the Over comfortably cashed. The Seahawks doubled up the Cardinals, too, while covering as 7.5-point faves. Favorites were 4-2 SU, while favorites and underdogs split 3-3 ATS. The Over-Under also split 3-3. Favorites remaining 30-10 (75.0%) in divisional play, and the Under is 21-19 (52.5%) through 40 games.
Looking to AFC vs. NFC games, the Indianapolis Colts tripped up the Atlanta Falcons 31-25 in overtime in Berlin to kick off Sunday’s action. The Colts were favored by 6, so that was a push at most shops as the Over cashed in Germany for the first time in five NFL games all-time. The AFC made it 3-for-3 with the Baltimore Ravens topping the Minnesota Vikings 27-19 as a 4.5-point favorite while the Under (49) cashed, and the New England Patriots stopped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as underdogs as the Over (48) hit. Favorites were 2-1 in intra-conference games, while home teams went 2-1 SU with road teams 2-1 ATS. The Over was also 2-1 in those games. The NFC is 21-18 ATS (53.8%) through 39 games.
Thursday Night Low
Last week, the Ravens bounced the Dolphins 28-6 in Lamar Jackson’s return, halting a four-game Over run on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos and Raiders said, “Hold by beer!”, as they played an awfully boring 10-7 game which went in favor of the home team. That’s two straight Under results after we had 52.8 combined points per game from Weeks 5 through 8. I didn’t see the game, but I am sure Al Michaels was perfectly pleasant, and didn’t complain once.
Autumn Wind Is a Pirate?
If you remember the old NFL Films movie about the Raiders, the Autumn Wind is supposed to be a Pirate. The Raiders are definitely not sweeping along, nor swaggering boisterously, and it’s the fans and bettors who look weather beaten, especially those betting Overs involving the Raiders.
The Raiders have cashed the Under in four of the past five games, and the offense has scored a total of just 13 points in the past three road games. It squandered a tremendous defensive effort in Denver, losing 10-7. In Week 7, it was blanked 31-0 in Kansas City, and in Week 5, the Raiders were belted 40-6. The cover for the Raiders was nice, but they’re still just 1-3 ATS in the past four road outings, and 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight games since winning outright as an underdog in New England in Week 1.
Seriously, if you don’t know the video, google “Autumn Wind Is A Pirate”. It’s my all-time personal favorite.
Prime Time?
In addition to that ugly 10-7 win by the Broncos over the Raiders, we had a 3-2 game on Sunday Night Football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers, and the Bolts led just 15-3 after three quarters before a flurry of points made it 25-10 in favor of L.A.
On Monday Night Football, it was scoreless in the first half, the first time we’ve had that since the 2023 season. It was just 3-0 after three quarters in favor of the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles took a 10-0 lead, while the Green Bay Packers scored a late touchdown to make it interesting. Brandon McManus had a shot at a long, long field to force overtime, but that aforementioned autumn wind turned up, and it was never even close, blowing harmlessly well to the left. Yep, two 10-7 primetime games in the same week. Yuck. The Under went 3-0 in three games under the lights.
Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @WinWithJoe.