Top Super Bowl LV Prop Bets (2021)

With the Super Bowl at touching distance, it’s time to start thinking about how you’re going to allocate your finances when betting on the game. While betting on standard markets is enjoyable, it is difficult to find a significant edge, especially when sharps have an extra week to analyze and properly handicap the game.

Props offer an avenue where more value can be found if you know where to look. In fact, for my personal betting this year, props have been where the largest edge has been found, with my ROI on props almost tripling the ROI I have seen when betting on standard markets.

All of this goes to say; if you’re serious about making money betting on Super Bowl 55, props should be where you look to invest most heavily. Below I’ve outlined my biggest liabilities (props I’ve bet most heavily), along with some reasoning for each. If you want to find out more, I’ll be posting all the props I bet for the game on Twitter, @AllSummersLong_, as I have throughout the season.

Without further ado, let’s get to the props:

View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for Super Bowl LV >>

Player Props

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady over 0.5 rush yards (+140 on DraftKings):
This was +155 earlier in the week, but I still see some value down to +135. In a must-win game, we’ve seen Tom Brady resort to the QB sneak throughout his career. Moreover, given the Buccaneers are underdogs, they’re likely to be aggressive on fourth down, meaning there will be more short-yardage situations where the sneak might be an option. It also seems unlikely that Tampa Bay will be in a position to kneel, so if Brady does pick up a rushing yard, he’s unlikely to lose it.

Suddenly one unit at +140 on a 43-year-old rushing doesn’t look too bad, eh?

Scotty Miller TD (+425 on DraftKings):
This is purely a numbers play – I show value on Tampa’s over and Brady over 2.5 passing TD’s, but this seems like a more fun derivative of those bets. Stars always get over-bet in big games, and Scotty Miller is the most likely Tampa Bay player to score a TD that there’s value on.

That being said, this isn’t likely, just more likely than the 19% implied by the odds. So no more than a half unit on this one.

Tom Brady under 0.5 interceptions (+150 on DraftKings):
I love betting no interceptions. Typically, it is my most bet market, and it has been by far the most profitable market I’ve bet this season. Frankly, quarterbacks throwing interceptions is far more memorable than when they don’t, so there’s a real confirmation bias for people who bet the over on interceptions.

Yes, Tom Brady threw three picks last week. However, since Week 4, he has only thrown an interception in 5/15 games, far below the rate implied by +150.

Bet to your confidence level, but I have multiple units on this one.

Scotty Miller over 1.5 reception (+130 on DraftKings):
Again, stars typically see a lot of public money on their overs. Personally, I’ll be waiting to see where their lines go to in order to jump on the under before the game. While you wait for that, however, you can still bet against the stars implicitly by taking the lesser-known players’ overs.

Hence the second time we see Scotty Miller make an appearance on this list, this line feels short, and I’d stake one unit on it.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 passing TDs (+125 on DraftKings):
Here’s a perfect example of a star’s line being moved by pub money. This line opened at +110, so we’ve seen break even shift down by over three percentage points. I can’t see this line moving too much more, as it’s hard to find a way to slice it where there’s anything to like about betting on the over at -155.

I’d jump on this now with one unit.

Kelce to score a TD (-175 on DraftKings):
Finally, an opportunity to back a star. This may feel counterintuitive given the above bet. However, the opportunity for Travis to score a TD while Mahomes goes under is significantly more likely than the reverse. I would go so far as to argue that this is a pretty efficient hedge, with a small middle opportunity.

It seems unlikely that the Bucs will have an answer for Kelce – he’s going to make people a lot of money. I’d put two units on this one.

Mecole Hardman over 2.5 receptions (+115 on DraftKings):
Similar logic here to the Scotty Miller write up above. However, there’s another wrinkle adding to my confidence here. Though the playoffs (only a two game sample size), Hardman has had a negative average depth of target. He’s also had seven targets, but that’s less important. The impact of the negative aDOT is that it’s indicative of him being used as a quick passing game piece, which functions as a replacement for the run game.

The last time these teams met (which I wrote about in-depth here), Kansas had no luck running the ball. They’re likely to be relying on their quick pass game in short-yardage situations.

Hardman will see enough of the ball to merit another one unit staked on this one.

Game Props

KC first team to score (-121 on DraftKings):
Typically, there is a nerve factor to playing in a Super Bowl. The fact that Kansas City was here last year probably reduces that. Disregarding that, you get to take the more efficient offense at a break-even of only 54.7%. Moreover, historically speaking, Tom Brady led offenses have struggled to put up points in the first quarter of SuperBowl’s.

This can see two units. If you like this but want a little more juice, Kansas City to score first and win (at +160 on DraftKings) shows good value.

Under 10.5 in first quarter (-150 on DraftKings):
As said above, Tom Brady led offenses have struggled in the first quarter. To lend credence to that statement – they have been held to three points or fewer in his last five Super Bowls (three of which ended up going over).

Even if you like the over on this game, it’s worth staking one unit on this.

Novelty Props

What Color Liquid Will Be Poured on The Winning Coach of Super Bowl 55?

Unfortunately, I haven’t modeled Gatorade color, so any advice I can give is my own opinion. That being said, I can offer some useful insight. Since 2001, the team color has only featured in the Gatorade color three times (per oddsshark). People look to apply logic to these things, and that leads to the team colors being overvalued.

To combat this, if I had to bet this market, I’d take Orange, as the only data point we have is that the Andy Reid got doused in Orange Gatorade last year.

National Anthem (O/U 1:59 on Bovada):
Significant money has come in on the under here, with the over now juiced to +105 (under is -145). This is probably due to the fact the last three anthems have gone under 2 minutes. Also, Jazmine Sullivan has averaged around the 1:43 mark in her recorded National Anthem performances.

Indeed, if it were just Jazmine Sullivan singing, I’d be tempted to take the under. However, the fact that this will be a duet introduces enough uncertainty for me to brand this as a coin flip.

Again, you won’t catch me betting on this personally. If forced, I’d take the over and the juice, if only to be contrarian to everyone who advocates taking the under.

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Ethan Summers is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ethan, check out his archive and follow him @AllSummersLong_.