Tour Championship Betting Guide (PGA)
What a finish we had last week to the BMW Championship! Jon Rahm (10/1) sunk an extremely tough 66-foot birdie putt in a playoff to beat Dustin Johnson. This came a hole after D.J. drained a 43-foot downhill birdie putt to tie Rahm and force the playoff. Seeing the number one and two ranked golfers in the world compete for another championship was indeed a thing of beauty. Olympia Fields proved to be perhaps the toughest test of golf this season, with only five players managing to finish under-par.
We are officially on to the Tour Championship! The final week at East Lake Golf Club will be the culmination of the 2019-2020 PGA season. The top-30 in FedEx Cup points have earned their entry to the tournament and a chance to win the grand prize of $15 million. Once again, the new scoring format adopted last year will be used. Players will be assigned a score to par to begin the event, and the overall winner of the tournament will be crowned the FedExCup playoff champion.
Below is a chart that displays the starting stroke of each player in the field. Although it may appear that Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm have a massive advantage, we have to keep in mind that Rory McIlroy won the event last year even though he started at five-under-par. Xander Schauffele finished second after beginning at four-under for the week. Anything can happen at East Lake and is setting up for another spectacular event to end the season.
| STARTING STROKES | FEDEXCUP RANK/PLAYER |
| 10 under | 1. Dustin Johnson |
| 8 under | 2. Jon Rahm |
| 7 under | 3. Justin Thomas |
| 6 under | 4. Webb Simpson |
| 5 under | 5. Collin Morikawa |
| 4 under | 6. Daniel Berger 7. Harris English 8. Bryson DeChambeau 9. Sungjae Im 10. Hideki Matsuyama |
| 3 under | 11. Brendon Todd 12. Rory McIlroy 13. Patrick Reed 14. Xander Schauffele 15. Sebastian Munoz |
| 2 under | 16. Lanto Griffin 17. Scottie Scheffler 18. Joaquin Niemann 19. Tyrrell Hatton 20. Tony Finau |
| 1 under | 21. Kevin Kisner 22. Abraham Ancer 23. Ryan Palmer 24. Kevin Na 25. Marc Leishman |
| Even par | 26. Cam Smith 27. Viktor Hovland 28. Mac Hughes 29. Cam Champ 30. Billy Horschel |
Here are the past five winners of the BMW Championship:
- 2019 Rory McIlroy (-13)
- 2018 Tiger Woods (-11)
- 2017 Xander Schauffele (-12)
- 2016 Rory McIlroy (-22)
- 2015 Jordan Spieth (-9)
Course Preview
The Tour Championship will once again head to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, for the culmination of the 2019-2020 season. A Donald Ross Design, this course is a par 70, 7,346 yard-long track that places a premium on top iron play. Fairways are more difficult to hit than tour average, so ball striking and fairways gained will be essential. The golfers will see Bermuda greens that have many slopes and run-off areas.
East Lake will be a much more gettable course compared to last week, but it is still no easy track. Players must emphasize hitting fairways due to the penal rough and tough scrambling challenge the course presents. With golfers at a stroke disadvantage to begin the tournament, expect some aggressive play and above average going for the green percentages.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4’s gained
- Performance on Bermuda greens
- Opportunities Gained
Best Bets to Win (bonus strokes not applied) (Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
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Webb Simpson (+1200)
It has been a sensational year for the 12-year Tour pro. Simpson has won at both the Waste Management Pheonix Open and the RBC Heritage this season and has eight top-10s to his name in just 13 events. He’ll come in well-rested after taking the BMW Championship off last week. In the previous 50 rounds, Simpson rates out as the number one ranked player on Par 70 courses with Bermuda greens. An exceptional putter on Bermuda, these challenging greens shouldn’t cause much trouble for the 35-year-old. His potent combination of driving accuracy, strong approach play, and elite putting should bode well for Simpson at East Lake.
Collin Morikawa (+1900)
Morikawa has been mightily impressive in just his second year on Tour. The 23-year-old stole the show at the PGA Championship last month with his first Major win and proved he can win in the strongest of fields. He now goes to East Lake for the first time, and things should set up well for him. Morikawa was 33rd on Tour in driving accuracy, and 3rd in strokes gained: approach. His elite ball-striking ability has led him to the fourth most opportunities gained in the last 24 rounds. If his putter heats up as it did for the PGA Championship, I like Morikawa’s chances to win the season’s final tournament.
Best Top-5 Bets
Xander Schauffele (+280)
East Lake is a course that Schauffele has performed very well over the last three years. With finishes of second in 2019, seventh in 2018, and first in 2017, East Lake should bring back good memories for “X†this week. Schauffele is a real big-game hunter who shows up in the most decisive events year after year. Starting at three-under will encourage him to play aggressive and attack pins all week.
Tony Finau (+550)
Finau climbed up the leaderboard thanks to a closing round of 65 at the BMW Championship last week. Even more impressive, Finau finished third in strokes gained: putting. If Finau carries that confidence with the putter to East Lake, I like his chances to finish high. His ball-striking abilities speak for themselves, as Finau ranks 24th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 18th in strokes gained: approach and eighth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, in 2020.
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.