Tracking the Sharp Money for the Conference Round
There are just three games left in the NFL season with two of them coming on Sunday. This weekend’s action will start off with the Tennessee Titans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon followed by the Green Bay Packers visiting the San Francisco 49ers later on Sunday evening. We haven’t seen a ton of movement in the betting lines so far but let’s take a closer look at both contests and see where the sharp action is moving the lines:
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Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Last week, we saw the Kansas City Chiefs open up at -8 and the line quickly climbed to -10 at most shops. Sharps were on them early and the line pretty much held up through the week. While the Chiefs had an early first-quarter scare, they ended up roaring back and covering quite easily.
This week, bettors appear to have hit the pause but on betting the Chiefs as they again opened in the same neighborhood. This time, they opened -7.5 but the line has shifted the other way. The Titans have seen a sizable portion of the sharp action as a move from 7.5 to 7 is notable. Although most of the public is only going to remember that the Chiefs ended up winning 51-31 last weekend, the reality is they played poorly enough to dig themselves a 24-0 hole in the first quarter. The Titans, who do a great job of running the ball, controlling the clock and avoiding mistakes, probably won’t be as forgiving if they manage to earn such a lead on the Chiefs.
As for the total, we’ve seen a steady movement towards the over in this game as the total has gone from 51 to 53. Remember, this is a rematch from Week 10 of the NFL season where the Titans won 35-32. Some bettors may be looking back to that and thinking that the total is low this time around.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
As with the AFC Championship Game, the NFC Championship Game is also a rematch from the regular season. In Week 11, the 49ers smoked the Packers 37-8 in what was one of the worst games of Aaron Rodgers’s career. He had just 104 passing yards in that game. That’s likely a factor in how this betting line has moved as sharps have been all over the 49ers since the betting lines opened up.
The 49ers opened -7 but when you look across the board these days, they’re at -7.5 almost everywhere. Although few people are expecting another blowout, it seems that sharps do like the 49ers to earn another sizable win and cover the spread. There are still some concerns with Rodgers as he’s passed for 243 yards or less in eight of his last nine games. The passing game will have to be better if the Packers are to pull the upset.
As for the total, we haven’t seen a ton of movement but bettors do seem to like the over. The total opened up at 45 but the line has moved up to 46.5 almost everywhere across the board. The two teams totaled just 45 points in the first meeting but the consensus seems to be that the Packers will do more scoring this time around.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.