Tracking the Sharp Money for the Divisional Round
After a weekend of drama-filled Wild Card Weekend contests, we’re not moving into the Divisional Round. The top four teams in the NFL are back off of their byes and will host the showdowns. With the money moving the lines throughout the week, let’s take a closer look at the sharp action that we’ve seen so far on the four games.
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Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
There hasn’t been a ton of movement on this game but from the action that we’ve seen, it’s been on the 49ers. After the Vikings upset win, there were some questions as to whether this line would open at over or under a touchdown, and which way would it move? It opened at 49ers -6.5 in most shops – -6.5 -115 as well – and has inched up to -7. It’s settled at that number for a few days after the early sharp move and that’s probably where it will stay.
In terms of the total, we have seen a bit of money on the under. Most books opened up the line at 45 or 45.5, and now we see the line at 44.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
The Titans-Ravens game has also only seen about a half-point line movement so far as sharps are mostly undecided on this game. While the half-point is significant here – a move from 10 to 9.5 or vice-versa moves us off a key number – the overall action has been split. Some books opened the game up at 10 and some opened at 9.5, and most of the ones that opened at 10 and moved to 9.5 are at Ravens -9.5 -115.
We’re likely going to see that same push-pull throughout the rest of the week without any consensus. Some people feel the Ravens might actually get ahead, turn this into a shootout and blow the Titans out. Other people feel like the Titans are the perfect team to control the ball, keep the Ravens offense on the sidelines and to make this a close contest.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
There’s no question that the Chiefs are the sharpest side of the week so far.
Kansas City opened anywhere from -8 to -8.5 at most shops but there were some really early lines that had them at -7. We’re now seeing -9, -9.5 and -10 on the board.
Remember that the Texans beat the Chiefs earlier in the season, running the ball for 192 rushing yards and controlling the ball for 39:48. It doesn’t seem like bettors think that the same game plan will work – especially after seeing the Texans struggle versus Buffalo last week – as the money has been on the Chiefs.
Money on this total has been clear-cut too as the sportsbooks will need under. This game universally opened under 50 – in the 48.5/49 range – and is now universally over 51 – in the 51-point range.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
The Seahawks and Packers have the shortest spread on the board this week. We’ve been mostly looking at Green Bay -4 or -4.5 for the week. We’ve seen some sportsbooks with -4, some with -4.5 and some with -5, but none of this movement is all that significant as we’re bouncing around between dead numbers. If we see it hit -6 or -3.5, then that would be a more telling sign. As it is now, the action has mostly been split on the sides. We really haven’t seen much movement on the total either as the game opened at about 46 and is currently at 47 in most spots.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.