Tracking The Sharp Money For Wild Card Weekend

We have four games on tap for this weekend as the NFL playoffs get underway. We’ve been monitoring the action all week to keep an eye on the sharp money, so let’s take a closer look at the biggest line movements of the week.

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

The Texans opened this game as a three-point favorite as in general, bettors seem to feel like there’s not much between these teams. Both teams are 10-6, and while the Texans are at home, they’re not a franchise with a long history of playoff success, so it seems like bettors see this as a toss-up. The Texans have been to the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, but their only win in that span was over the Connor Cook-led Oakland Raiders.

The Texans opened at -3, but the line is down to -2.5 as sharps took the field goal with the Bills. In terms of the total, all of the money here has been on the over as the game opened at 41.5 in most spots but is all the way up to 44.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Patriots stumbled down the stretch and look far more vulnerable than originally imagined. This is a team that started 8-0 and had people wondering if they’d finish the regular season undefeated. Instead, they were just 4-4 in their last eight games – including an ugly loss at home as a 17-point favorite to the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.

With Tom Brady struggling (completed less than 56% of his passes in five of his last six games), bettors have been laying it down with the Titans a little bit. They opened +5.5 but are mostly down to +4.5. It’s not a significant move, though, as these are mostly dead numbers. As for the total, it’s inched up a little bit, going from roughly 42.5 or 43 to 44.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Like the first two games, we’ve seen a little bit of sharp money on this game but not a ton. The Saints did open at -7 at some sportsbooks but for the most part, they were at about -7.5 at open. They’ve inched up to -8 across the board but some shops still have it at -7.5. It’s really been minimal movement one way or the other.

The total is where we’ve seen the money move on this game as the line opened at about 47 in most spots but is now sitting at 50. Some sportsbooks opened at 46.5 and are at 49.5, but in general, we’ve seen a two- or three-point move on the total to the over. It’s clear the sharps are expecting a high-scoring game here.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks-Eagles game has seen some movement, but it really depends on where the books opened up the line. Some of the earliest shops to open the line actually had the Eagles as a one-point favorite. Those books took sharp money early on in the week and flipped the line to Seahawks -1 or -1.5. However, other books that opened later just opened the line at Seahawks -1.5, which is where we are across the board, for the most part. As for the total, it hasn’t really moved throughout the week.

If you’re betting this game, keep a close eye on the injuries as key players like Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, and Lane Johnson are uncertain for the Eagles, while Quandre Diggs and Jadeveon Clowney are question marks for the Seahawks.

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.