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U.S. Open 2022: Dustin Johnson Betting Odds, Preview, & Prediction

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For the first time since 1988, the U.S. Open returns to The Country Club in Brookline, Mass, this Thursday. While most of the conversation swirls around the feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, the field proves promising. The 2022 PGA Tour average score sits at 70.76, on pace for the 3rd lowest average for a single season ever. 

The last time the course was used was the 1999 Ryder Cup, where Justin Leonard sank a 45-foot-birdie putt on the 17th hole to defeat José Maria Olazábal and give the Americans the lead in the 33rd Ryder Cup. 

Twenty-three years later, The Country Club has endured a variety of renovations that cost over $11 million. The course sits near the PGA average in size at 7,264 yards, but its small greens separate it from average PGA courses. The Country Club’s greens take up approximately 4,400 square feet, an entire third below the PGA course average (6,600 for all math nerds.) 

Since the Battle of Brookline, the course’s greens have expanded by 20%, but Pebble Beach remains the only championship golf course with smaller greens than Brookline’s. Those thriving around the green will be a massive advantage this weekend. For those betters out there, Will Zalatoris leads the entire PGA in shots gained approaching the green with a 97% success rate, and Jon Rahm leads golf in Greens hit in Regulation at 72.34%. 

Along with the challenging greens, the weather won’t make it any easier for the players, with winds projected at 10-20 mph and a 70% & 35% chance of rain on Friday and Saturday. Golfers with low spin rates and high hangtimes in swings would be at a slight disadvantage, such as Cameron Smith (197th out of 205 in average spin rate per swing) and the favorite, Rory McIlroy (T14th out of 203 in longest hang time per swing). Players with high spin rates that are less likely to get carried by the wind, such as Max Homa (6th in spin rate), and Sergio Garcia (10th in spin rate), could be at a slight advantage. 

The weather conditions, the state of the PGA Tour, and the course outlook all have something in common; nothing is certain, which could make this year’s U.S. Open one of the most dramatic golf tournaments in history. So here are some of the tournament’s favorites who could hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday. 

Dustin Johnson Stats to Know

  • Projected Odds: +4400 (21st on FanDuel)
  • World Ranking: 16
  • Best U.S. Open Finish: Won (2016)
  • Last Four Tournament Finishes: 8th (LIV Golf), Cut, T59, Cut

Dustin Johnson’s Recent Form

Before LIV Golf, the story of D.J.’s 2022 campaign was his injuries. He withdrew from the Byron Nelson tournament in mid-May due to knee discomfort on the same knee he had arthroscopic knee surgery in 2019. The Players Championship three months ago was the last time Johnson had a top 10 finish in a PGA tournament. Since those three months, his average score has slid back to 74th in the world. 

Dustin Johnson’s U.S. Open Predictions

Dustin Johnson has a chance to make history. If he wins the U.S. Open, he’ll become the first non-PGA tour golfer to win a major since before the tour’s berth in 1929. D.J. should be at an advantage against the projected windy conditions this weekend. Since 2014, Dustin Johnson has gained the most strokes of any professional golfer in windy conditions (3.06). Although the windy conditions could serve as an advantage for the former U.S. Open champion, D.J.’s recent combination of injury concerns and lack of quality play recently makes his bet at +4400 very uncertain. If he were to capture his third major, his putting would have to improve, as he ranks 150th in strokes gained on the green and 81st in one-putt percentage.

The Pick: The best bet for D.J. would have to be his odds to finish in the top 20 (+190).

U.S. Open 2022 Golfer Profiles

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