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U.S. Open 2022: Sam Burns Betting Odds, Preview, & Prediction

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For the first time since 1988, the U.S. Open returns to The Country Club in Brookline, Mass, this Thursday. While most of the conversation swirls around the feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, the field proves promising. The 2022 PGA Tour average score sits at 70.76, on pace for the 3rd lowest average for a single season ever. 

The last time the course was used was the 1999 Ryder Cup, where Justin Leonard sank a 45-foot-birdie putt on the 17th hole to defeat José Maria Olazabal and give the Americans the lead in the 33rd Ryder Cup. 

Twenty-three years later, The Country Club has endured a variety of renovations that cost over $11 million. The course sits near the PGA average in size at 7,264 yards, but its small greens separate it from average PGA courses. The Country Club’s greens take up approximately 4,400 square feet, an entire third below the PGA course average (6,600 for all math nerds.) 

Since the Battle of Brookline, the course’s greens have expanded by 20%, but Pebble Beach remains the only championship golf course with smaller greens than Brookline’s. Those thriving around the green will be a massive advantage this weekend. For those betters out there, Will Zalatoris leads the entire PGA in shots gained approaching the green with a 97% success rate, and Jon Rahm leads golf in Greens hit in Regulation at 72.34%. 

Along with the challenging greens, the weather won’t make it any easier for the players, with winds projected at 10-20 mph and a 70% & 35% chance of rain on Friday and Saturday. Golfers with low spin rates and high hangtimes in swings would be at a slight disadvantage, such as Cameron Smith (197th out of 205 in average spin rate per swing) and the favorite, Rory McIlroy (T14th out of 203 in longest hang time per swing). Players with high spin rates that are less likely to get carried by the wind, such as Max Homa (6th in spin rate), and Sergio Garcia (10th in spin rate), could be at a slight advantage. 

The weather conditions, the state of the PGA Tour, and the course outlook all have something in common; nothing is certain, which could make this year’s U.S. Open one of the most dramatic golf tournaments in history. So here are some of the tournament’s favorites who could hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.

Sam Burns Stats to Know

  • Projected Odds: +2900 (12th on FanDuel) 
  • World Ranking: 9
  • Best U.S. Open Finish: Cut in 2021
  • Last Four Tournament Finishes: T4, 1, T20, Cut

Sam Burns’s Recent Form

Over these last three months, the list of golfers that have played better than Sam Burns is very minuscule. The 25-year-old has racked up two victories since March, winning Valspar in March and the Charles Schwab Challenge last month. The young star also proved he could compete in majors, finishing in the top 20 in the PGA Championship last month. Recently, he joined Colin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler as one of three players under the age of 26 ranked top 10 in the world. 

Sam Burns’s U.S. Open Predictions

Sam Burns is the only player in the entire PGA that ranks in the top 5 in strokes gained approaching the green and greens hit in Regulation. That being said, Burns’s elite ball-striking makes him an absolute steal at +2900 odds to win and +490 to finish top 5, especially with the short greens. And for those that bet more conservatively, +210 to finish in the top 10 and +115 to finish top 20. The former LSU Tiger’s strengths match up perfectly with Brookline. Burns’s putting is also consistent enough to sink birdies and save pars, ranking top 20 in strokes gained par putt in 2021 and 2022. The issue for Burns is his driving, ranking 117th on tour in driving accuracy at 59.63%. Sam Burns’s elite recent play and ball striking make him an enticing dark horse to take home the Wanamaker trophy, or at least overperform his expectations. 

The Pick: +2900 to win, +490 Top 5, +210 Top 10, +115 Top 20

U.S. Open 2022 Golfer Profiles

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