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U.S. Open Betting Guide (PGA)

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Stewart Cink proved he still has plenty of gas left in the tank after 25 PGA Tour seasons. The 47-year-old claimed his first victory since the 2009 Open Championship at the Safeway Open this past week in California. It was extra special for Cink, who had his son, Reagan, caddying for him. Cink shot two rounds of 65 on the weekend to climb the leaderboard and win the tournament at 21-under.

It’s officially Major week! In just the second event of the 2020-21 season, the PGA Tour will play its first of six Major tournaments. A field of 144 golfers will make the trip to Mamaroneck, New York, for the prestigious U.S. Open. The season’s first Major will be played at the difficult Winged Foot Golf Club, which has played host to several Majors in the past. We last saw the course in 2006, where Geoff Ogilvy won the U.S. Open after shooting five-over-par.

World number one and winner of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Dustin Johnson, is the betting favorite at +900, followed by Jon Rahm (+1000), Justin Thomas (+1500), and Xander Schauffele (+1500). The 120th U.S. Open is set to start on Thursday and it will be a real battle for the top-60 to make the weekend. Some notable dropouts from the tournament include Brooks Koepka (injury) and Scottie Scheffler (COVID-19).

Here are the past five winners of the U.S. Open:

  • 2019 Gary Woodland  (-13)
  • 2018 Brooks Koepka (-8)
  • 2017 Brooks Koepka  (+1)
  • 2016 Brooks Koepka (-16)
  • 2015 Dustin Johnson (-4)

Bet $50, Win $50 if ANY American Golfer Wins the US Open >>

Course Preview

The 2020 U.S. Open will be played on the West Course at Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Playing as a Par 70 and measuring at a long 7, 477 yards, the course will be one of the most difficult challenges of golf on the circuit. The West Course features penal rough, severe undulating greens and tight, sloping fairways. Greens are predominantly Poa Annua, but there is a small amount of Bentgrass mixed in.

Ball-striking will be pivotal for success at Winged Foot. Golfers must have a solid combination of both distance and accuracy off the tee to score well this week. There are only two Par 5s on the scorecard, so birdies on the long Par 4s that measure over 450 yards will be few and far between. Good scramblers and putters should also be highly considered at Winged Foot due to the challenging green complexes.

It would be surprising to see a final score below par this week. The course is simply a beast for even the best golfers to navigate, and it could play even longer this week because it is later in the season. Ogilvy won the U.S. Open on this course in 2006 with a score of five over par, so we can expect something similar. Rahm was quoted saying that if the course plays very firm like expected, he doesn’t see how any of them can shoot under par.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach (>175 yards)
  • Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)
  • Performance on Poa Annua/Bentgrass
  • Scrambling
  • Bogey Avoidance

Best Bets to Win

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Jon Rahm (+1000)
Rahm was victorious on two of the hardest courses the PGA Tour saw in 2019/20. His victories at both the Memorial Tournament and BMW Championship came at courses where many of the world’s best really struggled to shoot under par on the week. Winged Foot, according to Justin Thomas, is probably the hardest course he’s ever played. This could be the perfect set-up for the long-hitting Spaniard to win his first career Major title.

Ending his 2019-20 season with two wins and three other top-15 finishes in his last six events, confidence will be at an all-time high for Rahm. Third in strokes gained: tee-to-green, fourth in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 22nd in strokes gained: putting, Rahm is really coming off a tremendous season. His ability to be both long and accurate off the tee helped him finish second in total driving. Winged Foot is a beast, but Rahm should be able to be in the mix on Championship Sunday.

Xander Schauffele (+1500)
Many industry experts are supporting Schauffele to win his first Major this week at Winged Foot, and for good reason. Schauffele had eight straight top-25 finishes to end his 2019-20 season, including a T2 at the Tour Championship. He would have won the final event of the year if Dustin Johnson didn’t have the stroke advantage to begin the tournament. Schauffele ranked 8th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 33rd in strokes gained: putting, in 2019-20. His record at the U.S. Open is also phenomenal, with finishes of third, sixth, and fifth, in the last three years.

Mid-range Targets

Tommy Fleetwood (+3600)
This is a nice number for one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Hitting the ball long and finding fairways is Fleetwood’s forte, as he ranked sixth in total driving last season. He also leads the field in scrambling, which will be hugely important at Winged Foot this week with the penal rough. The Englishman is very elite with his long irons, ranking 3rd in proximity greater than 200 yards. Second at the Open Championship in 2019, and 2nd at the U.S. Open in 2018, Fleetwood has come very close to finding the winning circle at Majors in the past.

Patrick Reed (+3600)
Strong off the tee, tremendous around the green, and a great putter, Reed has the ideal skill-set to go well at Winged Foot. Over the last 50 rounds on courses greater than 7,400 where scoring is difficult relative to par, Reed ranks fifth in strokes gained. His off-the-tee game has really improved over the real, jumping from 75 to 42 in the strokes gained department. He will need to continue to drive the ball well and try to beat his fourth-place finish at the U.S. Open in 2018.

Long-Range Targets

Matthew Fitzpatrick  (+5100)
Fitzpatrick has proved he can play extremely well at very difficult golf courses. Third at Memorial, T6 at the BMW Championship, and T6 at the WGC are some impressive results for the 26-year-old. He is lights out on the greens, ranking 2nd in strokes gained: putting. Fitzpatrick will need his accurate driving to be on point and find some continued success with the putter on these severely undulating greens.

Matthew Wolff (+6100)
Another golfer who has shown up big time at the toughest courses is 21-year-old Matthew Wolff. T4 at the PGA Championship, T16 at the BMW Championship, and T22 at Memorial are all very strong finishes at extremely stacked field events. He is one of the longest drivers of the golf ball and this will bode well for him at Winged Foot once again. Wolff ranks fourth in ball-striking and 12th in approach in my rolling stats model.

Bet $50, Win $50 if ANY American Golfer Wins the US Open >>

 


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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.