UCLA vs. Utah State: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for UCLA vs. Utah State.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: UCLA vs. Utah State

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: UCLA vs. Utah State

UCLA 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Bruins enter March under head coach Mick Cronin who is a much better coach than interview subject. UCLA is a solid team.

The Bruins’ balanced attack features efficiency on both ends of the floor, despite some inefficient shot selection with their ample midrange looks. They have a top-50 offensive unit at all three levels and take care of the ball, giving them a high field goal rate.

Defensively, UCLA has been characteristically stifling under Cronin’s guidance, with a top-15 opponent field goal rate and top-10 turnover rate.

Sebastian Mack and Skyy Clark provide defensive intensity and perimeter shooting, respectively, while USC transfer Kobe Johnson brings elite defensive credentials. The frontcourt features intriguing pieces with 6-9 Tyler Bilodeau’s offensive versatility and the towering 7-3 Aday Mara adding rim protection.

This lineup slows down teams and will push them outside, with the seventh-lowest near-proximity attempt rate against. UCLA’s greatest concerns are consistency, particularly away from home, and their over-reliance on midrange shooting.

Looking at Bart Torviks profile comps, only one of the last nine teams with similar profiles to UCLA made it to the second weekend. That shows their lacking floor, but wins over Arizona and Gonzaga in December show a potential ceiling. Despite the Bruins’ vulnerabilities, Cronin’s defensive principles and roster depth make UCLA a dangerous tournament matchup.

Utah State 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Utah State enters the NCAA Tournament as a team that's all offense. But it's pretty solid! They went toe-to-toe with Iowa early this year and handled the slogging defense of North Texas. They score at a top-25 eFG% clip with the interior scoring of Aubin Gateretse, shooting by Dexter Akanno, and Ian Martinez's ability to get to the charity stripe and convert. Their near-proximity attempt rate is at a top-10 rate while capitalizing on a high offensive rebound rate and free throw rate.

Defensively, there's a lot to question. They'll force turnovers, but they foul and allow opponents an eFG% of 52, 232nd in hoops. They force opponents outside, but their perimeter defense isn't exactly spectacular.

It's also tough to trust this team playing up to competition with a 344th paper tiger metric ranking (they play poorly against higher competition) and a 347th away-from-home metric. They beat UNLV in the MWC conference tourney but then got gobbled up by Colorado State. The Mountain West hasn't exactly been elite in the NCAA Tournament, and I'm not sure if Utah State will be the team to change that reputation with their 150th-ranked defense.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: UCLA vs. Utah State

The Mountain West Conference hasn't fared well in the NCAA Tournament, and I don't know if Utah State will change that reputation much. Despite their solid offense, ranking 17th on KenPom in adjusted efficiency, their defense will hold them back here. In the final month and a half of play, Utah State ranked outside the top-220 in defensive efficiency. If you filter their play against top-50 teams, their efficiency drops to 117th in the league. UCLA's defense is going to force ample turnovers here and take advantage of a weak defense to get whatever they want and handle business.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: UCLA vs. Utah State

UCLA -5 (-110)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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