UFC 253: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa Betting Guide (2020)
The eight-fight run of fights taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV has come to an end, as the company will take their talents back overseas for a five-fight run on Fight Island off the coast of Abu Dhabi. Kicking off with UFC 253: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa on Saturday and ending with UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje a month from now, the highly successful first go around in the UAE made the venue a great option for rosters of international fighters.
Before the main event gets underway on Saturday, a light heavyweight bout between Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz will serve as the lead-in to one of the most intriguing matchups of the summer. For just the second time in UFC history, two male fighters with undefeated records will put it all on the line in a title fight that will have implications for years to come.
Let’s take a closer look at the action and see where we can spot the edge.
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Israel Adesanya (19-0-0) vs. Paulo Costa (13-0-0)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Originally scheduled to fight at the beginning of March in UFC 248, the current #2 contender to the middleweight belt Paulo Costa had to withdraw due to a bicep injury that ultimately sidelined him for eight months. Averaging roughly one fight a year since entering the UFC in March 2017, Costa has picked his spots well, going a perfect 5-0 in his fight events with the company.
The last time we saw him inside the octagon was over a year ago, a five-round slugfest with Yoel Romero that earned him Fight of the Night honors and his biggest payout to date. Before the Romero fight, a significant step up in competition, Costa had four straight TKO victories, all coming before the end of the second round.
Israel “Stylebender†Adesanya’s last fight was also against Romero, and while the outcome was the same (unanimous decision win), the course to get there was decidedly different. In a fight that was widely criticized as boring and lacking any sort of action, Stylebender waited for Romero to be aggressive and the aggression just never came.
In defense of Adesanya, his MO has become just that: a counter striker who lets the fight come to him. As the champion with no need for splash-type victories at this point in his career, his patience will continue to be one of the biggest weapons in his arsenal.
In this one, I see two fighters with a contentious past who by all accounts this week have largely put them to rest and appear more respectful of each other as the fight approaches. While I don’t see it being the snooze fest Romero-Adesanya was, I do think Stylebender waits out his spots all night and in Costa’s largest fight (by far) to date, his cautiousness gets the best of him.
Pick: Total Rounds – Over 2.5 (-134)
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.