UFC 254: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Guide (2020)
The long wait is finally over for even the most passive of UFC fans as 254: Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje has arrived.
Hosted on “Fight Island,†which has been a massive success for the UFC, the event will conclude another run of fights and can be streamed in its entirety on ESPN and ESPN+. Unlike the other events hosted here, this one will kick off its main card at 2:00 PM EDT, offering fans the rare opportunity for some matinee action.
In the main event, the storylines are nearly endless. The Russian vs. the American. Khabib’s first fight since losing his father due to complications from COVID-19. One closer to Khabib’s quest for 30-0.
Oh, and the lightweight belt on the line as well.
Let’s take a closer look at the tale of the tape and see where we can spot value.
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Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) vs. Justin Gaethje (22-2-0)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
After winning The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale in 2017 by a dramatic TKO of Michael Johnson, Justin Gaethje immediately lost his next two fights. His opponents knocked him out in both. But then a three-fight run, in which Gaethje secured a KO/TKO in the first round of all three, propelled him to a fight against Tony Ferguson for the interim Lightweight Championship in May.
Gaethje did not let the opportunity go to waste.
In a five-round affair, Gaethje made the lethal Ferguson look like a rag doll at points. He put the fight world on notice that he was not just a serious threat in the division, but in the sport.
Gaethje’s opponent is widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, and he has the resume to support it. Currently 28-0 as a professional fighter, Khabib has ravaged the lightweight division on his way to becoming a champion.
Since winning the belt off Al Laquinta via decision in 2018, Khabib choked out Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier within 12 months of each other. He made both feats look nearly effortless. His ability to get his opponent to the ground and dominate them for an extended period is second to none, and that’s not a lesson Gaethje will want to learn the hard way.
Bottom Line
After winning and then defending a lightweight belt six consecutive times in the World Series of Fighting, Gaethje joined the UFC in high regard. Since then, he has won Performance or Fight of the Night bonuses in all seven of his fights with the company, none of which have gone the distance.
As for Khabib, much has been made of him meeting his match wrestler-wise. Gaethje is an All-American decorated wrestler who should pose as Khabib’s toughest on the mat to date.
With wrestling being one of the strongest assets in his arsenal, it might come as a surprise that Gaethje has yet to be on the mat in a fight with the UFC. While I expect that to change in this one, I also expect Gaethje to come strong out of the gates to test Khabib’s ability to take it there against an imposing force like himself.
In the end, I think Khabib will struggle with Gaethje’s unorthodox, bull-in-a-China-shop approach. I see a lot of value in Gaethje’s nearly 3 to 1 odds to win. Also, if Khabib does win, it will almost certainly be on the ground.
Pick: Gaethje +265 (.5 Unit) & How Fight Will End? – Submission (+140) (1 Unit)
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.