UFC 256: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Betting Guide
Before the main event gets underway in this one, the co-main event in this one could very well serve as most card’s headliners as Tony Ferguson makes his return to the octagon against a lethal opponent in Charles Oliveira. Since the start of 2017, Oliveira has just one loss and has won Performance of the Night bonuses in three of his last five fights.
In what is the last pay-per-view fight of the year on the 2020 UFC calendar, the main even does certainly not disappoint. In it, the flyweight belt will be at stake as the #1 contender in the division, Brandon Moreno, will get his first career title shot against current champion Deveson Figueiredo. For Figueiredo, Saturday’s fight will be his third defense this calendar year and the fourth fight of what has been the most rewarding year of his career.
Let’s take a closer look at Saturday night’s main dish and see where we can spot an edge.
| Brandon Moreno | +270 | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | -355 | -355 | -313 | -300 |
Betting Profile: Brandon Moreno (18-5-1)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | D | W |
Standing at 5’7″, Moreno comes into this one with a 2″ height and reach advantage that he’ll be looking to use to his advantage against the smaller, but faster Figueiredo. While he should do everything he can to avoid this one going to the ground against a submission specialist in Figueiredo, Moreno holds an advantage in Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM) at 3.01 (vs. 2.79), and I expect his strategy to reflect that advantage.
If Moreno can hold his opponent at a distance in this one, he’ll still need to improve his striking accuracy (35%) against an opponent in Figueiredo who has shown an ability to elude punches in each of his last five wins.
Outside of his reach, an advantage Moreno might have in this one is simply is unpredictability. Often described as a chaotic fighting style, if Moreno can manage to stay upright early, his unorthodox style of fighting could get Figueiredo off guard.
Betting Profile: Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
For the champ Figueiredo, you have to go back five fights to find one that even made it out of the second round. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Figueiredo scrambles on the ground are turning into those of legend, with three of his last four fights ending in submission victories in the first round.
A closer look at the statistics paints the same story, as Figueiredo is averaging a staggering 3.0 submissions for every 15 minutes inside the octagon. His takedown accuracy, which hovers around 50%, is one of the best on the company roster as well.
Outright Bet
Both of these fighters fought on the UFC 255 card less than a month ago, and so the lack of rest between camps is a wash. What isn’t a wash, however, was that Figueiredo had also fought just three months earlier at UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 on Fight Island, and is thus finishing up his third camp in just over four months time.
While it’s no secret what Figueiredo’s strategy will be heading into this one, his current run to the title doesn’t face many fighters of the caliber he’ll see Saturday, and mistakes early could be consequential. Additionally, though Figueiredo’s takedown ability is stellar, Moreno comes into this one with a 63% defense success.
I like Moreno to pull off one of the bigger upsets of 2020 in what could be a drained Figueiredo, and cash as the nearly 3:1 underdog.
Pick: Brandon Moreno +270 (FanDuel)
Top Prop Bet
For all the points mentioned above, I think there’s value in the current chances Moreno tucks this one away early. For Figueiredo, who’s riding high after getting the belt and then defending it for his fifth victory in a row, a reality check in the form of an early exit could be just around the corner.
Pick: Brandon Moreno to win in the first round +1400
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.