UFC 257: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov Betting Guide
After another uber-successful three-fight run on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, the UFC will once again return home to the UFC Apex for, at minimum, the next six fights. Always pushing the envelope, the UFC had limited fans at its most recent string of fights in the UAE, and it wouldnât surprise me in the slightest if we see the same in a state-side arena here soon.
Streaming in its entirety on ESPN+, two-storied heavyweights will cap off this weekendâs card, which is stacked from top to bottom.
Letâs take a closer look at the main event itself and see where we can find some value.
ODDS | ||||
Alistair Overeem | +140 | +150 | +155 | +125 |
Alexander Volkov | -172 | -182 | -185 | -175 |
Betting Profile: Alistair Overeem (47-18-0)
Last Five Fights
W | W | L | W | W |
As heavyweights often tend to be, Alistair âThe Demolition Manâ Overeem is a KO/TKO kind of man. For better or worse. Over his last 12 fights, only one has ended in anything other than a KO/TKO, with seven ending before the second bell.
For as much as he throws them, Overeemâs Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM) remains relatively low at 3.71 coming into this fight. However, given his size, he does defend himself better than expected, as he absorbs just 2.33 Strikes per Min. (SApM) and possesses a defense ratio of 58%.
Betting Profile: Alexander Volkov (32-8-0)
Last Five Fights
W | L | W | L | W |
On Saturday, Overeemâs opponent will be Russian fighter Alexander âDragoâ Volkov, who comes into this one eight years is junior. Also, a KO/TKO specialist, Volkov has shown the endurance needed to go the distance relatively often.
Unlike Overeem, however, Volkov possesses the technique as evident by his 4.76 SLpM, which ranks him near the top of the division. Currently ranked the #6 contender amongst heavyweights (Overeem #5), a win here would put him one step closer to his ultimate goal: a shot at the heavyweight belt.
Outright Bet
From a statistic and recent fight standpoint, Volkov has the clear edge in this one. Haven taken out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy in the past 18 months, Volkovâs only loss was in a five-round marathon with one of the sharpest killers in the sport in Curtis Blaydes. In this one, I like for Volkovâs youth and skill to have the upper hand and expect it to be over well be for the final bell.
Pick: Alexander Volkov -172 (FanDuel)
Top Prop Bet
Assuming Volkovâs to win, there are very few scenarios where I can see it being via anything other than KO/TKO. Having only gone to the 5th round once in his 20-year professional career, Oveerm lacks the stamina which Volkov has often shown to possess.
Pick: Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.