Among the many oddities that plagued 2021, not seeing Conor McGregor inside the octagon ranks high for the UFC. Having fought just once, and in January, McGregor has battled plenty of challenges outside of the octagon in the time since.

Wanting to fight as many as seven times in 2021, McGregor will first have to get past fellow (No. 2) lightweight Dustin Poirier. Also having fought just once in 2020, Poirier has big plans for 2021, which start with defeating McGregor.

With a submission loss to (No. 1) Khabib Nurmagomedov being the only loss in recent memory for both, Khabib’s retirement from the sport leaves the path the belt wide open for both.

Let’s take a closer look at who will walk away victorious on Saturday.

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ODDS
Dustin Poirier	+250	+250	+240	+250
Conor McGregor	-305	-305	-303	-300

 

Betting Profile: Dustin Poirier (26-6-0)

Last Five Fights

W

L

W

W

W

Make no bones about it, these guys are two of the best strikers in the weight class, and they have the numbers to prove it. Averaging over 5.5 strikes landed per minute (SLpM), Poirier gets the edge here. He leads McGregor just barely, as the Irishman sits at 5.43.

The comparability continues when we look at striking accuracy, as both fighters average around a 50% hit rate, two of the highest at lightweight.

Where Poirier does have a significant edge is in grappling effectiveness. He averages 1.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, Poirier will likely look to take this one to the ground early.

Betting Profile: Conor McGregor (22-4-0)

Last Five Fights

W

L

W

W

L

McGregor matches up almost identically to Poirier physically, with the exception being a two-inch reach advantage. Both are southpaws who love to stand and throw, but McGregor gets the edge — he’s the more diverse striker, and he routinely switches to orthodox.

While there’s no shame in being choked out by Khabib, as both fighters were, it did key in on a consistent weak spot in McGregor’s game. With zero submission wins since joining the UFC, McGregor’s game plan will likely be what it always is: takedown defense and precision striking.

Outright Bet

As this fight has gotten closer, McGregor’s odds have simply gotten out of control. That’s likely due to casual fans rushing back to bet on the perceived king of the sport, you now have to bet more than $3 to win $1.

Though I certainly give an edge to McGregor due to his superior striking — and the fact he has one of the hardest left fists the division has ever known — I think the value at this point lies on Poirier. With wins over Gaethje, Holloway, and Hooker in the last three years alone, Poirier has proven that he’s in the sport’s elite, and he’ll remind us of that come Saturday night.

Pick: Dustin Poirier +275

Top Prop Bet

If Poirier does what I think he will, a lot of this fight will be spent with McGregor trying to avoid the ground, and he’ll have to spend a lot of energy to do so. After having not fought in a year, it should take McGregor some time to get the level of comfort back that we’re accustomed to seeing.

Both of these factors point toward the fight going long.

Pick: Total Rounds OVER 2.5 (+150)

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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.