UFC 260 Main Event: Francis Ngannou vs. Stipe Miocic Betting Guide
It’s officially Fight Week for the UFC once again, and this week’s card is one of the most exciting 2021 has thrown our way this far. In the co-main event, which had to be swapped out last week due to a positive COVID-19 test in the original bout, Tyron Woodley will look to get back on track after a recent three-fight stumble.
Immediately following Woodley vs. Vicente Luque, however, the heavyweight title will be on the line when Francis Ngannou gets his long-awaited rematch against current champion Stipe Miocic. Having first fought at the start of 2018, Miocic dominated for five straight rounds in a fight that Ngannou was gassed in throughout.
Has “The Predator†come far enough since that fight to force a different outcome in this one? Let’s take a closer look. And check out our co-main event betting guide for Woodley vs. Luque.
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Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | L |
When Francis Ngannou stepped into the Octagon against Miocic back at UFC 220, not only was he undefeated professionally, but none of his fights had made it out of the second round. It was no wonder then he was completely gassed after the second round in that fight, and his lack of stamina doomed him in the rounds to come.
Possessing a five-inch reach advantage against Miocic and one of the strongest punches ever recorded, Ngannou will likely once again try to set up the knockout blow early and often. The problem, however, is his accuracy. For all the strikes he throws, Ngannou has landed just 37 percent to this point in his career. Despite his inefficiency, he has been a largely one-dimensional fighter.
Betting Profile: Stipe Miocic (20-3-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | L | W | W |
Since last fighting Ngannou in 2018, Miocic’s only opponent has been Daniel Cormier (three times in a row). Dealing with injuries between each fight, each over the summer of the last three years, Miocic lacks the time inside the octagon that Ngannou has got since their last bought.
When he’s been in it, however, Miocic does a lot great. His 4.90 Strikes Landed per Min. rank at the top of the heavyweight division, as well as his 52 percent striking accuracy. His 1.92 takedown average/15 min. is also a statistic that Ngannou is more than familiar with.
Outright Bet
While Miocic will still likely be the fundamental fighter, I think Ngannou finally gets the belt in this one. Despite fighting four times since, none of those fights have gone beyond the second minute of the first round, meaning he should be as fresh as he’s ever been heading into this one. Add that to improved stamina and almost a year focusing on Miocic and only Miocic. I give the bigger, stronger Ngannou the slight edge in this one.
Top Prop Bet
Despite having zero submission victories in his professional career, Miocic is an animal on the ground and almost finished Ngannou multiple times that way in the first fight. It’s no surprise that his strategy will once again be the ground and pound, and all it takes is a small slip for this one to be over quickly.
Pick: Miocic by Submission +2300
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.