UFC 262: Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush Betting Guide
The UFC returns to Pay-Per-View this weekend after a two-fight stint on ESPN for the masses to consume.
In the main event, Charles Olivera will take on UFC new-comer Michael Chandler for the vacant lightweight belt, in a fight that has been widely criticized for Chandler’s perceived undeserved title fight just a few fights into his UFC career. Before the main event of the evening gets underway, however, UFC legend Tony Ferguson will look to get his career back on track against journeymen Beneil Dariush in another lightweight clash.
Will Ferguson end his two-fight slide and set the trajectory for another run at the title? Let’s take a closer look.
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Betting Profile: Tony Ferguson (26-5-0)
Last Five Fights
| L | L | W | W | W |
It was May 2020 and the first mid-pandemic event for sports fans worldwide to consume when Ferguson stepped into the octagon in Florida across from Justin Gaethje with the lightweight title on the line. He’d walk out a loser for the first time since 2012 and has yet to taste victory since.
Still the #5 contender in the division, Ferguson needs a win here desperately to get back on track.
One path to victory could very well be a return to his striking, as he comes into this one averaging 5.46 Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM), a touch down from where he’s spent most of his career. Also, as an elite wrestler, his last two defeats may have come from an over-emphasis on the ground.
Betting Profile: Beneil Dariush (20-4-1)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
Having not lost since 2018 and earning performance bonuses in four of his last five fights (all wins), it’s hard to find a seemingly more disrespected fighter than Beneil Dariush, mainly from the lack of real opportunity against the elites.
That will change Saturday night.
Coming into this one averaging 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, Dariush should have what it takes to not only get Ferguson to the ground but keep him there. Should he choose to stand and strike, the power is certainly there, finishing two of his last 3 by KO.
Outright Bet
Despite many are calling for the demise of “El Cucuy†Ferguson, I see this fight as the beginning of one final run up the ranks. While the Gaethje defeat certainly changed his outlook in the minds of many, I think the underdog role is exactly what he needs to get back on track.
Top Prop Bet
Looking back over these two last 10 combined fights, only 2 have gone the distance, and I expect nothing different in this one. With much on the line for both fighters, neither can afford to wait and feel the other one out.
Pick: Will the Fight go the Distance? – NO (+104)
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.