UFC 263: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Betting Guide
In what could very well end up being the card of the year, the UFC returns to Arizona this weekend for UFC 263. Stacked from top to bottom, Nate Diaz will make his return to the octagon before the co-main event even gets started, where he will take on Leon Edwards in what should be a great fight.
After the Diaz fight and a Flyweight Championship bout in the co-main, the main event of the evening will cap us off and should not disappoint. Almost three years to the month of their first fight, a split decision, Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya will once again square off vs. Marvin Vettori.
While both fighters have improved since then, has one improved more than the other? First, let’s take a closer look at where the value remains.
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| Israel Adesanya | -290 | -250 | -263 | -250 |
| Marvin Vettori | +225 | +200 | +215 | +200 |
Betting Profile: Israel Adesanya (20-1-0)
Last Five Fights
| L | W | W | W | W |
Since taking the middleweight belt from Kelvin Gastelum in early 2019, “Stylebender†has made fairly light work of the rest of the division. Picking up three straight victories, two Performance of the Night bonus-worthy, Adesanya then stepped up to Light Heavyweight in March, where he lost to Jan Błachowicz in the first defeat of his career.
Even in the defeat, Stylebender ranks near the top of the sport in most fighting metrics, including Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM) at 3.95. While he does struggle on the ground, his 82% takedown defense makes it evident he does everything in his power not to go there.
Betting Profile: Marvin Vettori (17-4-1)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
Since the loss to Adesanya, just his second in the UFC, Vettori has been on a tear himself, winning five straight fights, most recently in April vs. Kevin Holland. While the power is there, four of those fights have gone to the judge’s scorecard, which Vettori will need to change to take his profile to the next level.
The metrics, however, show Vettori as one of the best strikers in the division, coming in with a 4.14 SLpM. And accuracy of just over 44%.
Outright Bet
While the critique has been made throughout the week that Vettori has fought no one of stature since his last fight with Stylebender, I do think the strides have been made to put forth an even better performance in this one. The one round he likely won in the first fight came largely when the fight was on the ground, and I think we see that strategy carry forward in this one.
Top Prop Bet
A major difference between this fight and the last one is the real animosity between these two now. Whether Vettori is trying to elevate his profile as the loud, boisterous Italian, or if there’s real hate there, I see one of these fighters making a statement before the final bell sounds.
Pick: How will the fight end? – by KO/TKO (+130)
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.