UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Guide (2021)
In what will be a rare occurrence of back-to-back pay-per-view events, the UFC returns to pay-per-view this week, this time taking their talents back to the United States for a night of fights in New York City. Often considered the mecca of the fight game, Madison Square Garden will host a night of great fights headlined by a welterweight title fight that should be electric.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value remains.
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| Kamaru Usman | -310 | -320 | -333 | -330 |
| Colby Covington | +250 | +250 | +260 | +250 |
Betting Profile: Kamaru Usman (19-1-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
Having yet to lose inside the octagon, Kamaru Usman has just one loss in his career, a 2013 submission loss that most would say is a true aberration. Currently the #1 pound for pound fighter in the entire promotion, Usman is known for not just beating his opponents but doing so in a decisive fashion. Over his last four title defenses, three have ended via TKO/KO, most recently a second-round KO of Jorge Masvidal back in April.
A closer look at his metrics shows just how dominant he’s been. He’s landing 4.66 strikes per minute, 54% of which are significant. Defensively, Usman absorbs just 2.33 per minute while boasting a defensive clip of 58%.
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Betting Profile: Colby Covington (16-2-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | L | W | W | W |
For the challenger in this one, Colby Convington, he once possessed the belt he’ll be fighting for Saturday before being stripped of the title in early 2019. Outside of a loss in his UFC debut back in 2015, the only blemish on his record is a loss to Usman back in December 2019, one he’ll be looking to avenge Saturday.
As far as the metrics go, Covington isn’t far behind either. Entering Saturday, he trails Usman slightly, averaging 3.9 strikes per minute, 37% of which are significant, and has almost identical defensive numbers. On the ground, however, is where Covington truly excels, averaging 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 51%, leading Usman in all of them some spots by double.
Bottom Line?
While I initially had Covington in mind for this one after looking at the fight on paper, his lack of action since that 2019 defeat to Usman has me concerned. Having just fought Tyron Woodley since then, where it took five rounds for him to win via a Woodley injury, my concern lies in his lack of time inside the octagon.
On the other hand, Usman has defended his belt three times since then, all against killers and all decisively. In this one, I like Usman to secure the finish in an equally decisive fashion.
Pick: Usman by KO/TKO +155
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