UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Guide (2021)
In what will be the last PPV event of the year, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV for what should be a great night of fights. Following a bantamweight women’s title fight in the co-main, a pair of light heavyweights will go at it in the main event as Dustin “Diamond†Poirier tries to win his first outright belt.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value lies and who has the edge in this one.
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| Charles Oliveira | +138 | +135 | +145 | +135 |
| Dustin Poirier | -170 | -155 | -175 | -160 |
Betting Profile: Charles Oliveira (31-8-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
In a sport and division full of absolute killers, Charles Oliveira rises to the top and yet somehow is still criminally underrated. Holding the UFC record for most submission wins (14) as well as most finishes (17), the current lightweight champ is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet.
A 3rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Oliveira holds a big edge on the ground in this one. Coming into this fight, he averages nearly double the takedowns as Poirier with 2.64 per 15 minutes, and more than double the submission averages per 15 minutes at 1.23
Betting Profile: Dustin Poirier (28-6-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | L | W |
Despite having a fighting history that’s a “who’s who†of the sport, Saturday night could mark Poirier’s first-ever outright title belt. With his only loss in the last five years coming against Khabib Nurmagomedov (via submission), Poirier has wins over Justin Gaithje, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, and Conor McGregor (2); as he comes into this one with one of the most impressive resumes int he entire sport.
What he might lack on the ground he makes up for on his feet in spades, as he comes into this one with significant strikes landed per minute clip of 5.62 (vs. 3.26).
Bottom Line?
If I could guarantee that Oliveira was going to stand and strike with Poirier in this one, I’d be all over “Diamond†and feel great about my chances. Unfortunately for Poirier, I see Oliveira doing everything in his power to take this one to the ground as quickly as possible.
Once there, things will likely go very south for the Lousiana native, whose 50% of his UFC losses have come on the ground. In a fight I have much closer to even on paper, I’m taking Oliveira as the slight underdog in this one.
Pick: Charles Oliveira +145
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