UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane Betting Guide (2022)
The fight UFC fans have long awaited is finally here, as the heavyweight belt will be unified Saturday night in Anaheim, CA at UFC 270. While the card features great fights from top to bottom, all eyes will be on Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight champ Ngannou looks to strip the interim belt from the challenger Gane.
Let’s take a closer look at the main event between two former sparring partners.
| Francis Ngannou | +122 | +135 | +125 | +135 |
| Ciryl Gane | -150 | -155 | -149 | -155 |
Betting Profile: Francis Ngannou (16-3-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
Ngannou was long thought to be destined to be the heavyweight champ, before running into some trouble in the form of then champ Stipe Miocic in 2018, and a subsequent loss to Derrick Lewis; both decision losses. Since then, however, Ngannou has rattled off five straight TKO wins, all but one in the first round.
That one? A second-round KO vs. Miocic to claim the belt once and for all in March at UFC 260.
Things get tricky this weekend, however, as Ngannou holds an edge only in grappling with .41 submissions per 15 minutes, and takedown accuracy at 33%.
Betting Profile: Ciryl Gane (10-0-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
Don’t let his relatively small amount of professional fights fool you, Gane is a force to be reckoned with. Coming off a fight vs. Derrick Lewis that he dominated before ending in the 3rd round via TKO, Gane picked up the interim belt due to a lack of activity from Ngannou as he continues to have his public feud with Dana White ahead of potentially the final fight of his contract.
While Ngannou has the slide edge in grappling, Gane has morphed into one of the best strikers in this heavyweight division. Coming into Saturday, Gane is landing 5.37 significant strikes per minute, more than double that of his opponent.
Bottom Line?
This one opened at nearly a pick-em before a flood of money, both public and sharp, has flooded in on Gane. And I think for good reason.
The more athletic fighter, Gane has all the attributes that Ngannou does in spades, in addition, to being the better defensive fighter. He also has the added benefit of not only having sparred against Ngannou in the past but having Ngannou’s former coach in his own corner.
While I do expect some late buyback on Ngannou, I’m taking Gane in this one regardless of the #.
Pick: Ciryl Gane -145
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