UFC 274 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson (2022)
We have what should be a great lightweight scrap as fifth-ranked Michael Chandler takes on the seventh-ranked Tony Ferguson. Chandler currently is the big betting favorite in this matchup, with his betting line hovering around -365.
Both of these guys are fighting to climb back up the lightweight rankings as they enter this fight, having lost multiple fights in a row to the division’s top fighters. Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this lightweight bout.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Profile: Michael Chandler (22-7-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)
Since coming over to the UFC, the former Bellator champion is just 1-2. However, Chandler’s two losses are to the guys fighting for the Lightweight Title on the same card as he lost via KO/TKO to Charles Oliveira and via decision to Justin Gaethje.
His one win is via KO/TKO against Dan Hooker, a round one finish in his first-ever UFC appearance that granted him an immediate title belt against Oliveira. This striking power is essentially thrown out the window as he now goes against Tony Ferguson, someone who does not get finished inside the distance.
Due to Ferguson’s reach advantage and the fact that he does not get knocked out, I expect Chandler to try to take this fight to the mat. The former Division 1 All-American collegiate wrestler will most likely use his explosiveness to try to control the ground game and win via points against Ferguson.
In the UFC, Chandler has a 44% control rate of clinch/ground time. No matter the method, Chandler desperately needs this win to propel himself back up the rankings, as a 1-3 start against the division’s better fighters would not bode well for a future title shot.
Betting Profile: Tony Ferguson (26-6-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-L-W-W)
Like Chandler, Ferguson enters this bout amidst a losing streak to the division’s top-ranked fighters. Those three losses are to the current champion Charles Oliveira, the number one-ranked challenger Justin Gaethje, and the lightweight division’s fourth-ranked Beneil Dariush.
Ferguson has made a living in the UFC for being tough as nails, which still rings true at this point in his career. Entering this fight, Ferguson has never been finished in the UFC in a three-round bout.
I mentioned in the previous section how Chandler will likely attempt to bring this fight to the mat, which may be problematic against Ferguson. In his UFC career, Ferguson boasts a 68% takedown defense.
I expect Ferguson to fight at a distance and keep this scrap on the feet to combat Chandler’s game plan. Ferguson does not have explosive power when fighting at a distance, as he has a knockdown rate of just 0.4%.
Bottom Line
Styles make fights, and these two guys’ styles and game plans may lead to a lot of dancing around the octagon. Chandler will keep shooting while Ferguson will keep this thing on the feet and try to rack up points at a distance.
If I am correct in each guy’s game plan, we are getting great value in this fight to go the distance at plus money. As I said earlier, Ferguson has never been finished inside the distance of a three-round bout.
Meanwhile, Chandler should work on the ground to rack up points. If Chandler is unsuccessful in taking It to the mat, then I am not worried about this fight ending early as Ferguson has just two KO/TKO wins over his last 13 fights.
Best Bet: Chandler/Ferguson Fight To Go the Distance – Yes (+150)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.